Bermuda: Hurricane Ernesto tracking north-northeastward past Bermuda as of Aug. 17 /update 9

Hurricane Ernesto is tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean having passed over Bermuda early Aug. 17. As of 11:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 75 km (50 miles) north-northeast of Bermuda.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will remain a Category 1 hurricane as it continues tracking generally north-northeastward over the North Atlantic Ocean away from Bermuda Aug. 17-early Aug. 19 before weakening into a tropical storm and then transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks northeastward and passes to the southeast of Newfoundland Island, Canada, late Aug. 19-early Aug. 20. The storm will continue to weaken as it tracks east-northeastward away from North America Aug. 20-21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

Authorities are maintaining a hurricane warning for Bermuda as of Aug. 17. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update/rescind existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Hurricane conditions may continue in Bermuda over the coming hours and tropical storm-force winds are likely through late Aug. 17-early Aug. 18. The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15-22.5 cm (6-9 inches) over Bermuda. The rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas.

Significant coastal flooding is possible in Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Large and destructive waves near the coast will accompany the surge. Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the US and will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada Aug. 17; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities have reported that around 75 percent of customers across Bermuda are without power due to the passing of the storm; restoration work will begin once conditions are safe to do so. L.F. Wade International Airport (BDA) in Bermuda has been closed since 20:00 Aug. 16 due to Ernesto. Bus services across Bermuda are suspended from 20:00 Aug. 16 through Aug. 17. Ferry services have been suspended until further notice. The Causeway is closed through at least Aug. 17; authorities will assess the structure Aug. 18 and reopen once it is safe to do so. Several other roads are closed, and motorists are being advised to stay off the roads from 19:00 Aug. 16 and throughout Aug. 17. Authorities opened an emergency shelter from late Aug. 16 at Cedar Bridge Academy in Devonshire for the elderly and those without adequate shelter for the storm. The Lamb/Foggo Urgent Care Centre in St David's is operational and will close once the Causeway is reopened.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.