16 Aug 2024 | 03:36 PM UTC
Bermuda: Hurricane Ernesto tracking north-northeastward towards Bermuda as of Aug. 16 /update 7
Hurricane tracking north-northeastward towards Bermuda as of Aug. 16. Close approach to Bermuda likely early Aug. 17.
Hurricane Ernesto is tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean towards Bermuda Aug. 16. As of 11:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 345 km (215 miles) south-southwest of Bermuda.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks north-northeastward and passes very close to the west of Bermuda early Aug. 17. Ernesto is then forecast to remain a Category 1 hurricane as it continues tracking generally north-northeastward over the North Atlantic Aug. 17-19 before weakening and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks northeastward and passes to the southeast of Newfoundland Island, Canada, late Aug. 19-early Aug. 20. The storm will continue to weaken as it tracks northeastward then east-northeastward away from North America Aug. 20-21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of Aug. 16, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane Warning
Bermuda
Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update/rescind existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Aug. 17, with tropical storm conditions likely from the afternoon of Aug. 16. The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) over Bermuda, with isolated maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches). The rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas.
A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Large and destructive waves near the coast will accompany the surge. Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, are expected to reach the east coast of the US late Aug. 16 and continue into Aug. 18, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Aug. 17; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
L.F. Wade International Airport (BDA) in Bermuda will be closed from 20:00 Aug. 16 due to the passing of the storm. Bus services across Bermuda will be suspended from 20:00 Aug. 16 through Aug. 17. Ferry services have been suspended until further notice. Several roads are being closed and motorists are being advised to stay off the roads from 19:00 Aug. 16 and throughout Aug. 17. An emergency shelter will be open from late Aug. 16 at Cedar Bridge Academy in Devonshire for the elderly and those without adequate shelter for the storm.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
