Bermuda: Hurricane Ernesto tracking north-northeastward towards Bermuda as of late Aug. 15 /update 6

Hurricane Ernesto is tracking north-northeastward towards Bermuda late Aug. 15, having made landfall over the Virgin Islands late Aug. 13 and over Guadepupe early Aug. 13. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 660 km (410 miles) south-southwest of Bermuda.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen temporarily through Aug. 16 before weakening slightly and passing close to the west of Bermuda early Aug. 17. Ernesto is forecast to weaken into a category 1 hurricane as it continues tracking generally north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland Island, Canada, through late Aug. 19 before weakening into a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward away from Newfoundland Island through Aug. 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Aug. 15, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Bermuda

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Aug. 17, with tropical storm conditions likely from the afternoon of Aug. 16. The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) over Bermuda, with isolated maximum amounts of 38 cm (15 inches). The rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding.

A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Large and destructive waves near the coast will accompany the surge. Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, are beginning to reach Bermuda, are expected to reach the east coast of the US late Aug. 15 and continue into Aug. 18, and could reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Aug. 17; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.