Bermuda: Hurricane Ernesto tracking north-northeastward towards Bermuda as of late Aug. 16 /update 8

Hurricane Ernesto is tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean towards Bermuda Aug. 16. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 105 km (65 miles) south-southwest of Bermuda.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane early Aug. 17. Ernesto is then forecast to remain a Category 1 hurricane as it continues tracking generally north-northeastward over the North Atlantic Ocean Aug. 17-19 before weakening and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks northeastward and passes to the southeast of Newfoundland Island, Canada, late Aug. 19-early Aug. 20. The storm will continue to weaken as it tracks northeastward then east-northeastward away from North America and towards Ireland Aug. 20-21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Aug. 16, authorities have issued a hurricane warning for Bermuda. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update/rescind existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force early Aug. 17. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong winds will continue on the island through late Aug. 17. The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15-22.5 cm (6-9 inches) over Bermuda. The rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas.

A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Large and destructive waves near the coast will accompany the surge. Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the US and will likely reach portions of Atlantic Canada by late Aug. 17; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

L.F. Wade International Airport (BDA) in Bermuda has been closed since 20:00 Aug. 16 due to the passing of the storm. Bus services across Bermuda are suspended from 20:00 Aug. 16 through Aug. 17. Ferry services have been suspended until further notice. The Causeway is closed through at least Aug. 17; authorities will assess the structure Aug. 18 and reopen once it is safe to do so. Several other roads are closed, and motorists are being advised to stay off the roads from 19:00 Aug. 16 and throughout Aug. 17. Authorities will open an emergency shelter from late Aug. 16 at Cedar Bridge Academy in Devonshire for the elderly and those without adequate shelter for the storm. The Lamb/Foggo Urgent Care Centre in St David's is operational and will close once the Causeway is reopened. More than 11,000 people in Bermuda are without power. As it is too dangerous for repair crews to work, power would likely be restored after weather conditions improve following the passage of the storm. Government offices closed at 16:00 Aug. 16.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.