30 Aug 2024 | 02:29 PM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Cross-border violence to continue and could potentially escalate into late September /update 20
Cross-border violence impacting Israel, Syria, and Lebanon could intensify into late September.
Tensions between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) will remain unpredictable and could intensify through at least late September. The IDF carried a series of preemptive strikes on the LH's positions in southern Lebanon on Aug. 25 as the militant group was preparing to conduct a retaliatory attack in response to the killing of Fuad Shukr in Beirut, July 30. Following Israel's strikes, the LH launched a barrage of projectiles against Israel. Despite the LH stating that its response to Shukr's killing had concluded, the potential for escalation remains given that the ongoing cross-border exchange of fire continues. The IDF will also likely continue its airstrikes against the LH's and other Shi'a militias' positions in Syria. Meanwhile, concern over Iran's possible retaliation to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's killing in Tehran on July 31 remains. Tehran has pledged a response, but it is likely that there is no unity of command among the Iranian elite regarding what form and shape Iran's response should take. Intensive diplomatic efforts by the US and French governments to avoid escalation into a broader conflict remain ongoing as of late August.
As of Aug. 31, the UK, French, and Italian governments maintain updated travel advice for Lebanon, advising their citizens to depart the country while commercial flights remain available. Several other countries have issued similar advice, including Australia, Canada, Germany, and the Netherlands, pointing to the potential for rapid deterioration of the already volatile security situation. The US government advises against all travel to Lebanon and recommends that US nationals wishing to leave the country book any outbound ticket available due to the potential for flights being canceled, suspended, or sold out.
The LH has asserted that it would not stop its attacks on Israel until a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war halts fighting in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government, on the other hand, has increased the number of targeted drone and missile strikes it has been conducting against key Hamas and LH political and military leaders; Israeli airstrikes have killed multiple senior LH and Hamas leaders in different parts of Lebanon in recent weeks.
Cross-border fire involving the IDF and Syrian military forces will likely continue to occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The IDF will also almost certainly continue targeting sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP) and has previously caused serious material damage to the landing strips.
Unless averted, any broader conflict that might develop will prompt severe commercial disruptions in the nations directly involved. Several commercial airlines, including but not limited to Air France (AF), British Airways (BA), United Airlines (UA), Delta (DL) and Lufthansa (LH), have periodically suspended flights into Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) over possible eruption of conflict. Further flight disruptions are likely, and as tensions escalate, BEY would likely close, making leaving Lebanon extremely difficult; neighboring countries could also close their airspace, resulting in widespread flight cancellations and disruptions. Authorities could also impose further movement restrictions or evacuations in the Israel, Syria, or Lebanon border region. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints would probably further disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel to Lebanon, Israel, and Syria, particularly the shared border region, until the situation stabilizes. Consider departing Lebanon via commercial means while these are available. Note that commercial options in Lebanon may become increasingly limited if the security environment deteriorates. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
Tensions along Israel's northern borders with Lebanon and Syria spiked immediately after the Hamas-led attack of Oct. 7 and have increased in response to a series of cross-border armed exchanges that have occurred in the months since.
Israel’s border area with Lebanon has been declared a closed military zone since mid-October 2023, with civilians being prohibited from approaching within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the border and residents living within 2 km (1.2 miles) of the border having been evacuated.
