Leeward Islands: Hurricane Ernesto tracking north-northwestward away from the Leeward Islands as of late Aug. 14 /update 5

Hurricane Ernesto is tracking north-northwestward away from the Leeward Islands late Aug. 14, having made landfall over the Virgin Islands late Aug. 13 and over Guadepupe early Aug. 13. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 280 km (175 miles) northeast of Grand Turk Island, Turks and Caicos Islands.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a category 3 hurricane as it tracks generally north-northeastward away from the Leeward Islands through early Aug. 16 before weakening into a category 2 hurricane as it passes close to the west of Bermuda early Aug. 17. Ernesto is forecast to weaken into a category 1 hurricane as it continues tracking generally north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland Island, Canada through late Aug. 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Aug. 14, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Watch

• Bermuda

Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Hurricane conditions are possible in Bermuda Aug. 17, with tropical storm conditions possible by the afternoon of Aug. 16.

The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over Bermuda, with isolated maximum amounts of 23 cm (9 inches). The rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding.

Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. They will spread toward Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas Aug. 15, reach the east coast of the US late on Aug. 15, and continue through Aug. 18; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

The US president approved an emergency declaration for Puerto Rico. Around half of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands were without power at the height of the storm; some power has since been restored, but hundreds of thousands of people remain without power as of late Aug. 14. More than 120,000 people across Puerto Rico are without drinking as flooding interrupted water filtration processes at several water processing plants. Airports across the Leeward Islands have reopened following temporary closures during the storm's passage. The seaports in the US Virgin Islands remain closed but authorities state that reopening them is possible Aug. 15.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.