14 Aug 2024 | 04:13 AM UTC
Leeward Islands: Tropical Storm Ernesto tracking northwestward away from the Leeward Islands as of late Aug. 13 /update 4
TS Ernesto tracking northwestward away from the Leeward Islands as of late Aug. 13. Close approach to Bermuda likely Aug. 17.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking northwestward away from the Leeward Islands late Aug. 13, having made landfall over the Virgin Islands late Aug. 13 and over Guadepupe early Aug. 13. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 55 km (35 miles) northwest of St. Thomas Island, US Virgin Islands.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward away from the Virgin Islands through early Aug. 14. The storm is then expected to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks north-northwestward across the Sargasso Sea region of the North Atlantic Ocean through Aug. 16, before passing close to the west of Bermuda Aug. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of late Aug. 13, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane Watch
US Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
Vieques and Culebra
Tropical Storm Warnings
British Virgin Islands
US Virgin Islands
Puerto Rico
Vieques and Culebra
Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through early Aug. 14. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area over the coming hours.
The system is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) over the US and British Virgin Islands. Totals of 15-20 cm (6-8 inches) are expected over southeastern Puerto Rico, with maximum amounts of 25 cm (10 inches), as well as 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across northwestern Puerto Rico.
Storm surge may raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above ground level along the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques, and in the British Virgin Islands and US Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and will reach the Dominican Republic late Aug. 13, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Aug. 14, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas Aug. 15; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Saba has closed the Juancho E. Yrausquin Airport (SAB) through at least Aug. 13 and canceled all ferry services Aug. 13-15. Motorists are advised to avoid traveling to Fort Bay Aug. 13 due to the risk of flash flooding and landslides. John A. Osborne Airport (MNI) in Montserrat is closed until further notice. Robert L. Bradshaw Airport (RLB) in St. Kitt's and Nevis is closed through early Aug. 14. Clayton J. Lloyd International Airport (AXA) in Anguilla is closed. Port and ferry services have been suspended as of Aug. 13. The Henry E. Rohlsen Airport (STX) and Cyril E. King International Airport (STT) in the US Virgin Islands are closed and are scheduled to reopen early Aug. 14. The US Virgin Islands seaports remain closed until further notice. The V.C. Bird International Airport (ANU) in Antigua reopened late Aug. 13, and the Princess Juliana International Airport (SXM) in St. Maarten early Aug. 14 following the passage of the storm; some flights remain canceled, and lingering flight disruptions are possible as airlines work to clear backlogs. Several roads across Guadeloupe were closed from late Aug. 12, and the Val Ferry company suspended sailings between Pointe-a-Pitre and Marie-Galante Aug 13-14. Authorities in Puerto Rico have warned that power outages are likely due to the fragile state of the power grid. Schools have been closed across the region, including Puerto Rico, Sint Martin, and the Virgin Islands. Government offices in Montserrat, Saba, St Kitts and Nevis are closed Aug. 13.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
