30 Aug 2024 | 03:33 PM UTC
Libya: Force majeure on oil exports continues as of Aug. 30 /update 1
Increased security and disruptions to oil production and banking services likely in Libya through mid-September.
Increased security and disruptions to oil production and banking services remain likely in Libya through at least mid-September. Libya's Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir has stated that he and several other senior bank personnel have been forced to leave the country to 'protect our lives' from possible attacks by armed militia groups. Al-Kabir has also stated that militias are threatening bank personnel and occasionally abduct family members to force compliance with their directives.
The current situation comes against the backdrop of an ongoing power struggle over the control of the country's Central Bank, which is based in Tripoli. Following the Government of National Unity's (GNU) attempt in Tripoli to replace al-Kabir, Libya's eastern-based government declared a force majeure on oil exports on Aug. 26.
Should the force majeure continue, protests outside government buildings in Tripoli and Benghazi, as well as oil fields, cannot be ruled out over the coming days.
Avoid any protests that materialize. Comply with the instructions of local authorities and security personnel. Confirm business appointments. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.
Tensions have escalated over the past two months due to a series of unilateral decisions by the rival Government of National Stability (GNS) and Government of National Unity (GNU). Both parties have attempted to remove and appoint political figures without the other's consent, increasing tensions.
If the two governments fail to agree on a compromise candidate for the Central Bank, tensions could escalate further. While the possibility of armed conflict between forces from rival governments cannot be entirely dismissed, political factions are likely to find a solution. This is primarily due to the financial implications of the current crisis, as both parties are concerned about the impact on their revenues.
