Myanmar: Authorities extend nationwide state of emergency by six months effective Aug. 1 /update 11

The National Defense and Security Council extended the existing state of emergency in effect across Myanmar by six months, effective Aug. 1. The decision marks a sixth consecutive extension of the state of emergency since the February 2021 military coup. The state of emergency was slated to expire on July 31. The move will likely postpone the next general election, which the current constitution stipulates is required to occur within six months after a state of emergency is lifted. Related demonstrations protesting the announcement are almost certain to occur nationwide over the coming days. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, monuments, and public squares.

As of Aug. 1, the most intense fighting is concentrated in northern Shan State, Rakhine State, and northern Mandalay Region, where food shortages, heavy civilian casualties, and telecommunication outages persist. Air strikes in Lashio in northern Shan State have killed over 100 civilians in the past month. Lashio Airport (LSH) has been suspended indefinitely since July 3. Across Rakhine State, banking services, including cash dispensing machines, have halted in at least seven townships due to transport restrictions that prevent cash flow into the state. In Mandalay Region, the military has tightened security at entrances to Mandalay City, including along the Mandalay-Pyin Oo Lwin road in Patheingyi Township, following heightened clashes, most notably in Madaya Township, approximately 30 km (20 miles) north of Mandalay City. Elsewhere, intense clashes persist in northern regions, such as Bago, Chin, Kayah, Kachin, Kayin, and Mon states, upper Sagaing and Magway regions, and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or affected regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State.

The latest series of attacks comes after the military has lost approximately half of its 5,280 military bases, headquarters, and outposts amid coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups since Oct. 27, 2023. Bomb and drone attacks primarily targeted military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Attacks on structures and buildings with foreign ties, such as the Korean-backed BXT port, could also occur, though militants do not specifically target them. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery and airstrikes to target the groups' members or villages thought to shelter the fighters. The conflict has displaced over 3 million people, killed at least 5,161 civilians, and seen the detention of more than 20,500 individuals perceived to be anti-regime since February 2021. Related air strikes have also caused casualties, including in border regions of Bangladesh and China.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Bago, Mandalay, and Yangon. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures at incident sites, resulting in localized disruptions.

Increased Security
Tight security continues within and at entry points of major cities, including Yangon and Mandalay. Curfews remain in Sittwe, Rakhine State, and multiple northern areas of Shan State, including Lashio; a night curfew is active in industrial zones, including those in Hlaingthayar and Shwe Pyi Thar townships, as well as parts of Yangon. Martial law is in place across at least 55 townships, including within Chin, Mon, and Karen states; such movement restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses are likely in other regions if clashes continue.

Transport and Shipping Disruptions
Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States.

• Lashio and Mandalay.

• Yangon and Sittwe.

• Chin State and Sagaing Region.

• Chin State and Magwe Region.

• Mandalay-Moegoke and Mandalay-Myitkyina routes 19:00-06:00 daily since June 25 due to armed groups' warnings.

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked. Intermittent ground transport and shipping disruptions affect trade with China, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand. Cargo flights between Yangon International Airport (YIA) and Kunming in China are available. Airports that have recently experienced intermittent violence-related closures include Kalaymyo Airport (KMV), Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Thandwe Airport (SNW). Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.

Utility Disruptions
It is unclear when telecommunication services will be restored in Kachin State amid a communications blackout since July 21. Authorities have also reportedly shut down telecommunication and internet services in Mongok Town, Mandalay, as of 08:30 July 19 amid intense clashes between the TNLA and military forces in the eastern section of the town. Conflict-hit areas of northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunication outages; Sagaing Region and Rakhine State are reportedly facing severe fuel shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Myanmar. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions.

Internet Disruptions
The junta has imposed fresh internet restrictions since May 31, notably banning the use of Virtual Private Networks (VPN), which are mainly used to access banned social media and messaging platforms. Officials are also reportedly conducting random checks of personal devices to check for the presence and use of prohibited applications in Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions. Some local businesses have experienced disruptions due to reduced online traffic and access. Limited VPN services and messaging platforms such as Telegram remain accessible.

Civil Unrest
There is an extant risk of anti-junta demonstrations, such as marches and roadblocks nationwide, mainly over mandatory military conscription and any fresh security curbs. Popular gathering spots include government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies, though the scale and frequency of protests in major urban centers like Yangon have significantly declined in recent months due to tight security. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021.