18 Aug 2024 | 03:47 PM UTC
North Atlantic: Tropical Storm Ernesto tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean as of Aug. 18 /update 10
TS Ernesto tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean Aug. 18. Close approach to Newfoundland, Canada, late Aug. 19.
Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking north-northeastward in the North Atlantic Ocean Aug. 18, having passed over Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane early Aug. 17. As of 11:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 950 km (590 miles) south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will briefly strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it continues tracking generally northeastward over the North Atlantic Ocean Aug. 18-early Aug. 19 before weakening into a tropical storm and then transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it passes to the southeast of Newfoundland Island, Canada, late Aug. 19-early Aug. 20. The storm will continue to weaken as it tracks east-northeastward away from North America Aug. 20-21. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
There are no coastal warnings or watches in effect as of Aug. 18. Authorities may issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Swells generated by the system are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the US, and Atlantic Canada Aug. 18; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Large breaking waves could possibly bring coastal flooding to parts of southeastern Newfoundland, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions.
Flights and other transport services are beginning to resume in Bermuda as the system moves away Aug. 18; however, more than 12,000 customers remain without power across the island. Minor damage has been reported and felled trees and flooding have blocked some roads; further damage assessments are ongoing.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
