Afghanistan, Pakistan: Ongoing protests near border crossings likely to persist through at least mid-October amid recurrent border clashes /update 4

Activists in Pakistan will likely continue their ongoing protest campaigns near various border crossings connecting to Afghanistan through at least mid-October. The demonstrations are to demand the rollback of Pakistani government rules mandating passports and visas for cross-border travel. Rallies have affected or are occurring in the Duki, Chaman, Harnai, and Zhob districts of Balochistan Province and near the Torkham and Angoor Ada border crossings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The protests have exacerbated disruptions at land crossings, which frequently face intermittent closures due to clashes between border forces. For instance, local media reported the death of at least one Afghan security personnel and damage to civilian homes in Afghanistan's Zazai Maidan District due to cross-border clashes Sept. 7, disrupting transit and trade.

Authorities will almost certainly monitor demonstrations while maintaining tight security at border checkpoints. Popular protest sites include large markets, major intersections, monuments, interprovincial highways, and border checkpoints. Thousands of people have attended large demonstrations in the past and have staged multi-day sit-ins and blockades, as well as localized shutdown strikes. Officials could implement enhanced restrictions, including temporary public movement and telecommunication curbs, to prevent or control well-attended protests. Clashes between activists and police are possible, especially if police forcibly disperse crowds. Associated transport and business disruptions will likely persist, including supply chain and shipping issues.

Additional security incidents, including cross-border firings, are possible. The border districts of Kandahar, Khost, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktika, and Zabul provinces in Afghanistan, as well as the Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces in Pakistan, remain the most vulnerable to such clashes. Disruptive clashes typically result in temporary suspensions of cross-border movement for up to a week for bilateral talks, though prolonged closures are possible if related protests materialize.