Ecuador, Peru: Severe weather forecast across much of both countries through at least Oct. 1

Severe weather is forecast across much of Ecuador and Peru through at least Oct. 1. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across the region over the coming days; strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail may accompany storms. Heavy downpours may lead to flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Strong winds during storms may cause property damage and power outages.

Ecuador's National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) has issued a warning for rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds across much of the interior of the country through Oct. 1. The highest red-level warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place across parts of northwestern Carchi, eastern Esmereldas, northwestern and southwestern Imbabura, and far northwestern Pichincha provinces; rainfall totals of 4-9 cm (1.6-3.5 inches) are possible in these areas. Orange and yellow warnings are in place across the central Inter-Andean and eastern Amazon regions and northern parts of the western coastal region.

The National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru (SENAMHI) has issued orange level advisories (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for heavy rainfall in the central mountain and eastern rainforest regions Sept. 27-28. The heaviest rainfall in the rainforest region is expected in southern areas Sept. 27, with rainfall totals of around 5.5 cm (2.2 inches) possible in the region. Daily rainfall totals of 3-4.5 cm (1.2-1.8 inches) are expected in the rest of the rainforest region and 1.4-2 cm (0.6-0.8 inches) in the mountain region Sept. 27-28.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger intermittent flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region, though these are unlikely to be severe or prolonged. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.