Europe: Further rallies and security alerts related to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hizballah conflicts are likely regionwide through October /update 16

Protests and demonstrations in response to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hizballah conflicts will likely continue in major cities across Europe through at least October. Additionally, authorities will likely continue to impose increased security measures in response to terrorism threat assessments, connected to Middle East tensions. As of late September, campaign groups across Europe have intensified protest activity following Israel's strikes against Lebanese Hizballah (LH) in Lebanon. Conflict developments will continue to prompt spikes in protest activity. Counter-demonstrations are possible at all rallies.

Authorities across Europe will likely prepare for an escalation in protest activity and security threats on Oct. 7, on the anniversary of the Hamas attack in Israel.

Protest Activity
Related demonstrations will likely continue to occur in cities across the region as the conflict in the Middle East persists. In late September, tens of thousands of people participated in rallies denouncing Israel's strikes in Lebanon; the largest events were in Geneva, Helsinki, Istanbul, Paris, and Stockholm. Protests will likely intensify in response to various developments, including high-casualty incidents, new offensives, humanitarian pauses, diplomatic efforts, and trial proceedings at the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court.

Further demonstrations will likely continue to take place in public squares, city centers, government buildings, major transport hubs, mosques and Islamic cultural centers, synagogues, Palestinian diplomatic offices, and Israeli embassies or consulates. Demonstrations and sit-ins may occur at universities, particularly in France and the UK. Protesters in Denmark, Turkiye, and the UK have targeted defense industry companies and Western franchise restaurants with perceived links to Israel. Occasionally, protests also occur near major broadcasting facilities. In Turkiye and Cyprus, demonstrations have taken place near US and UK military bases, respectively. Tight security typically accompanies related demonstrations. Clashes between rival groups of demonstrators or between demonstrators and police are possible. Localized business disruptions and road travel delays are likely near any protests that materialize.

Heightened Security
Authorities will likely deploy additional police to monitor protests and demonstrations related to the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Hizballah conflicts.

Potential security incidents, including terrorist attacks, targeted arson, and other security threats, will likely continue to prompt national authorities to review security alert levels. The governments of Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Portugal have raised their terrorism threat warning levels, while authorities in Spain and Italy have increased security. Authorities in France, Germany, and the UK report significant increases in antisemitic and Islamophobic crimes, including verbal abuse and vandalism, prompting them to increase security at synagogues, mosques, and religious schools.

Authorities will likely maintain elevated security across Europe until the threat has diminished. Law enforcement personnel will likely continue to be deployed near sensitive sites and potential targets, including government offices, synagogues and mosques, and Israeli, Palestinian, Jewish, and Islamic interests. Security-related disruptions are possible for international arrivals at airports, maritime ports, and land border crossings. The following countries across the Schengen Area have temporarily reintroduced heightened border security in response to the region-wide elevated terrorist threat: Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Security incidents will likely remain at an elevated frequency across the region amid the Israel-Hamas and Israel-Lebanese Hizballah conflicts. As a precaution, responses to potential security incidents, including suspicious packages and bomb threats, will likely be enhanced throughout the region in the coming weeks. Precautionary security force reactions, including evacuations and search operations, will likely prompt short notice and short-term business and public transport disruptions. Additional security procedures may disrupt organized gatherings such as conferences, religious and public commemorations, and sporting and other cultural events.