Japan: Tropical Storm Bebinca tracking northwestward toward Amami Islands, Japan, as of Sept. 14 /update 6

Tropical Storm Bebinca is tracking northwestward across the Philippine Sea towards the Amami Islands, Japan, Sept. 14. As of 15:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 267 km (167 miles) east-northeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall over southern Amami Oshima in the Amami Islands late Sept. 14. After passing the Amami Islands, Bebinca is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon as it tracks northwestward across the East China Sea toward southeastern China through Sept. 15 before making landfall near Shanghai early Sept. 16. After landfall, Bebinca is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across southern Jiangsu Province Sept. 16 before weakening into a tropical depression and dissipating as it moves over Anhui Province Sept. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned of strong winds, landslides, flooding, and rough seas across the Amami region from late Sept. 14 as well as strong winds and rough seas across the Okinawa region through Sept. 15. Rainfall totals of 15 cm (6 inches) are forecast over the Amami and southern Kyushu regions and 10 cm (4 inches) over the Okinawa region Sept. 14-15 and 8 cm (3 inches) over southern Kyushu region Sept. 15-16. Winds gusting up to 162 kph (101 mph) are expected in the Amami region Sept. 14, 126 kph (78 mph) in the Okinawa region Sept. 14 and the Amami region Sept. 15, and 108 (67 mph) in the Okinawa region Sept. 15. Waves of up to 8 meters (26 feet) over the Amami region, 7 meters (23 feet) over southern Kyushu region, and 6 meters (20 feet) over the Okinawa regions are forecast Sept. 14, with slightly lesser swells expected Sept. 15. The JMA has issued red (middle level on a three-tier scale) storm warnings in the Amami region and red high wave warnings in parts of Kagoshima Prefecture in southern Kyushu region, the Amami region, and Okinawa region. Yellow thunderstorm, storm surge, gale, and high wave advisories are in place across parts of southern Japan.

Authorities have issued evacuation orders for the elderly and vulnerable in Amami City, Shinen, Tatsugo, Tokunoshima, Setouchi, and Wadomari towns and Uken and Yamato villages in the Amami Islands in Kagoshima Prefecture.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow typhoon warning (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale), advising of strong winds over the East China Sea and coastal areas of northeastern Zhejiang, Shanghai, and southeastern Jiangsu and heavy rainfall totaling around 5-9 cm (2-3.5 inches) over southeastern Zhejiang and eastern Fujian Sept. 14-15.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.