Luzon Strait: Typhoon Krathon tracking westward away from Batanes Province, Philippines, late Sept. 30 /update 4

Typhoon Krathon (named Julian in the Philippines) is tracking westward over the Luzon Strait late Sept. 30, having moved over Batanes Province in the far northern Philippines early Sept. 30. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 998 km (620 miles) southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly as it tracks northwestward then north-northwestward and north-northeastward in the Luzon Strait through early Oct. 2, before making landfall over Kaohsiung City in Taiwan during the afternoon Oct. 2. After landfall, Krathon will weaken but remain a typhoon as it tracks northeastward across Taiwan late Oct. 2-early Oct. 3 before entering the East China Sea. The system will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward and then north-northwestward over the East China Sea late Oct. 3-5 and begins to approach Zhejiang Province, China, late Oct. 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 30, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued an updated weather bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to northern regions and rough seas to coastal waters. PAGASA is maintaining the following wind signals for the storm:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Batanes Province.

• TCWS 3: The northern and western Babuyan Islands.

• TCWS 2: Northern and western mainland Cagayan including the rest of Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, and northern and central Ilocos Sur provinces.

• TCWS 1: The rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, northern Aurora, and northern and eastern Nueva Ecija provinces.

A separate weather advisory is also in place for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Batanes and Ilocos Norte provinces and the Babuyan Island Sept. 30-Oct. 1. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected in mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, and the rest of Ilocos Region Sept. 30-Oct. 1 and across Batanes Province and the Babuyan Islands Oct. 1-2. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected across the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region Sept. 30-Oct. 1 and Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur Oct. 1-2. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued sea and land typhoon warnings and strong wind advisories for southern coastal areas. A red extremely heavy rain advisory (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) is in place across mountainous parts of Taitung County, and orange and yellow heavy rain advisories are in effect across the rest of eastern and southern Taiwan.

Residents in Batanes Province were asked to dock their small boats in shelters or on dry land and were also instructed to board up their windows and secure their roofs ahead of the approach of the storm. Hundreds of people were evacuated in parts of Cagayan Province and several others in Ilocos Norte ahead of the storm. Basco Airport (BSO) in Batanes Province was closed on Sept. 30 due to the passing of the storm, and several domestic flights have been canceled across other airports in the northern Philippines. Schools are suspended across most of northern Luzon on Sept. 30 until further notice. Initial reports indicate one person has died due to electrocution in Santa Ana in Cagayan Province and some flooding and damage have been reported in parts of northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands. Full damage assessments may not be able to take place until the worst of the severe weather has passed and it could take some time until the full impact from the storm is confirmed.

Taiwan authorities have urged people to avoid visiting coastal and mountainous areas. Several ferry services have been suspended, and ports closed in Pingtung and Taitung counties Oct. 1-2. Most public beaches, national parks, and forest recreation areas are closed through at least Oct. 2.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.