13 Sep 2024 | 09:33 AM UTC
Mexico: Tropical Storm Ileana tracking north-northwestward towards Baja California Sur State as of early Sept. 13 /update 1
TS Ileana tracking north-northwestward in the Pacific Ocean early Sept. 13. Landfall over Baja California Sur State, Mexico, Sept. 13.
Tropical Storm Ileana is tracking north-northwestward in the eastern Pacific Ocean towards the Baja California Peninsula early Sept. 13. As of 02:00 MST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 185 km (115 miles) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur State.
Forecast models indicate that Ileana will make landfall near San Jose del Cabo in Baja California Sur State around 12:00 Sept. 13. The system is expected to weaken slightly but maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks north-northwestward over southeastern Baja California Sur State and enters the Gulf of California late Sept. 13. The storm will weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks northward then north-northwestward over the Gulf of California Sept. 14, before dissipating as it approaches the coast of southwestern Sonora State Sept. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Sept. 13, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical storm warning: The west coast of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward and the east coast of Baja California Sur from San Evaristo southward
Tropical storm watch: The east coast of Baja California Sur north of San Evaristo to Loreto and mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito
Tropical storm conditions are forecast to reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the morning Sept. 13 and are possible within the watch area by early Sept. 14.
Forecast models indicate the system will produce rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) with localized higher amounts of up to 20 cm (8 inches) across southern Baja California Sur State Sept. 13-15. Rainfall totals of 15-20 cm (6-8 inches) with localized higher amounts up to 30 cm (12 inches) are possible across coastal areas of northwestern Sinaloa State. The heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flooding and landslides across the affected regions.
Swells generated by the system will affect coastal areas of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Schools have been closed in Cabo San Lucas and La Paz Sept. 13 ahead of the approach of the storm. Officials have not issued any evacuation orders in affected areas as of early Sept. 13 but have warned residents to take precautions ahead of the storm's arrival.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
