Mexico: Tropical Storm John reforms off the coast of Guerrero State early Sept. 25 /update 3

Tropical Storm John has reformed and is tracking eastward off the coast of Guerrero State, Mexico, early Sept. 25. The storm previously made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane south-southwest of Marquelia late Sept. 23 before weakening into a tropical depression and moving back out into the Pacific Ocean Sept. 24. As of 09:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 180 km (110 miles) west-southwest of Acapulco, Guerrero State.

Forecast models indicate that John will strengthen but remain a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward then north-northeastward Sept. 25-26 before making another landfall near Papanoa in Guerrero State late Sept. 26. After landfall, the system is forecast to rapidly weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks northward inland over Guerrero State late Sept. 26-early Sept. 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

As of early Sept. 25, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Watch: Acapulco to Zihuatanejo

• Tropical Storm Warning: Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Sept. 26, and tropical storm conditions are forecast to occur along the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as late Sept. 25. A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the system makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Forecast models indicate that the system will produce additional rainfall totals of 25-50 cm (10-20 inches), with localized higher amounts of around 76 cm (30 inches), across parts of Guerrero, Chiapas, Michoacan, and Oaxaca through Sept. 27. Swells from the system will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico over the coming days. The swells may cause dangerous surf and rip currents.

Flooding, landslides, blocked roads, power outages, and other associated disruptions were reported across parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca after the storm first made landfall. Authorities have reported at least four storm-related fatalities in Guerrero State. Additional adverse weather associated with the storm will likely exacerbate the situation in affected areas.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations as well as additional flash flooding and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.