02 Sep 2024 | 10:23 AM UTC
Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in northern provinces through at least late September /update 10
Militant threat likely to remain elevated in Mozambique's northern provinces through late September amid counterinsurgency operation.
The militant threat in Mozambique's northern provinces will remain elevated at least through the end of September. Security forces are still engaged in combatting Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ), whose high levels of mobility appear hard to eradicate. After moving southward into Nampula Province, recent militant activity has been concentrated near Muidumbe and Chitunda, with a continued presence in the Mocimboa da Praia and Nangade districts. They continue to employ IEDs along main roads, including along the Mungwe-Chitunda axis.
Mozambican security forces - strengthened by the Rwanda Defence Force’s (RDF) new deployments - began a large-scale offensive in early August. Their aerial support has proven effective, pushing insurgents away from the critical port of Pemba. The intense fighting has led to the renewed internal displacement of local populations, especially in the area surrounding Mucojo, and raised fears of civilian casualties. Militant activity has also prevented authorities from providing food, as well as administrative, social, and health services.
Violent attacks on major infrastructure and urban areas could increase on short notice, especially amid the ongoing political campaign for the Oct. 9 general election. Authorities will undoubtedly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and Nampula and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. The military presence will continue for the duration of the threat.
Consider deferring nonessential travel to current conflict-impacted locations until officials clear the areas and the situation stabilizes. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula provinces. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans regularly. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.
Mozambique's northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado, have been subject to a continuous Islamist insurgency since October 2017. The attacks appear to have been initially motivated by an international Islamist agenda, with ASWJ pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS), which had reportedly provided weapons, funding, and training to the militants. Attacks peaked in 2022, spreading to Nampula and Niassa provinces, before a significant decrease in 2023, likely due to the military support provided by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda. As of mid-2024, the insurgency has reportedly killed around 8,000 people and displaced about one million others since it began.
Through the first half of 2024, ASWJ attacks significantly increased, leading to the militants crossing the southern provincial border into Nampula for the first time in over a year. Their largest attack on May 10 targeted Macomia town, with at least 100 militants engaged in a coordinated operation to take over and retain a larger urban area. Militants likely exploited the temporary security vacuum created by the progressive withdrawal of the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), which departed Mozambique in mid-July 2024. Since the attack, the situation appears to have cautiously improved. South Africa announced it would prolong its deployment through 2024, with a remnant staying through March 2025 to secure the Mozambican Channel. And crucially, the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) also announced the arrival in late May of an additional 2,000 troops to supplant the outgoing regional contingent.
The difficulties in eradicating militant presence are likely due to their strong resiliency, adopting guerilla tactics, jeopardizing ground travel routes, and relying on local populations' support. ASWJ claims to defend the local rural population against the central government and its allies in a large-scale recruitment campaign dubbed "hearts and minds" amongst rural populations. The campaign has provided the group with a measure of favor, now proving capable of retaining control of small villages. While not controlling large areas, militants have, since 2023, regularly made use of remote-controlled improvised explosive devices (IEDs), posing a permanent threat to overland travel. In addition, though ASWJ's modus operandi does not typically threaten foreign nationals - typically attacking local militias, security forces, and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults - assaults against mining operations have sporadically occurred. The latest attack threatening foreigners occurred in February 2023 in the village of Nairoto in Cabo Delgado Province, prompting the precautionary evacuation of personnel from the nearby mining camp of Nairoto Resources Limitada.
As of mid-2024, ASWJ's presence continues to disrupt political, industrial, and humanitarian efforts in Cabo Delgado. The surge in attacks in early 2024 has forced foreign aid programs to decrease their presence in the province and could threaten the healthcare response to a potential mpox (monkeypox) epidemic in northern Mozambique. Foreign investors are considering resuming drilling operations off the coast after pausing efforts in 2021, with a view to exporting gas from the northern port of Palma in 2024 should its reconstruction proceed uninterrupted. ASWJ demonstrated in July 2024 its ability to attack small targets at sea when it kidnapped a group of fishermen off the coast of Mocimboa da Praia. The group's capacity to raid convoys or attack ore, oil, and gas mining compounds could be cause for concern that it might acquire the means to threaten maritime transport in the near future.
Various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories against travel to Cabo Delgado and restricting travel in certain areas of Niassa and Nampula.
