Nigeria: Biafra separatist activities likely to persist in southeastern states and Abuja through at least late December /update 18

Biafra separatist activities, including protests, work stoppages, and low-level armed attacks, will likely persist in the southeast through at least late December amid the continuous detention of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader Nnamdi Kanu. Kanu remains in custody in Abuja after a court hearing at the Supreme Court of Abuja in late September.

IPOB activists often carry actions, such as strikes (also called stay-at-home or lockdown orders). There have been reports of emerging rival factions within IPOB and conflicting strike orders. Attacks and intimidation against those seen as not adhering to any IPOB strike calls are possible. In addition, security officials often attribute acts of violence and kidnappings targeting civilians or security forces to IPOB militants or its armed wing, known as the Eastern Security Network (ESN).

Security forces will likely deploy to monitor protests or related actions. Protests or stay-at-home actions will probably affect business and transport operations. If demonstrations do occur, clashes with security forces are likely. Officials will almost certainly increase security and prohibit vehicle and pedestrian movement in parts of the Three Arms Zone where the Federal High Court and the Supreme Court are located during forthcoming hearings. During previous hearings, tensions increased in the court's vicinity as security forces allegedly barred Kanu's legal representatives from access to the courtroom. Security operations against separatists in the southeast could lead to localized transport disruptions. Security forces may establish roadblocks and checkpoints. Further armed attacks targeting security forces are possible.