Yucatan Channel: Hurricane Helene tracking north-northwestward off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as of Sept. 25 /update 3

Hurricane Helene is tracking north-northwestward in the Yucatan Channel off the coast of Quintana Roo State, Mexico Sept. 25. As of 10:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 135 km (85 miles) north-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks northward away from the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico Sept. 25. Helene is expected to strengthen further into a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico Sept. 26, before making landfall over the Big Bend region of Florida late Sept. 26. After landfall, the system is expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northward over western Georgia early Sept. 27, before weakening further and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks northwestward over central Tennessee Sept. 27. The remnants of the system are expected to stall over southern Kentucky late Sept. 27-early Sept. 29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours and days.

As of Sept. 25, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida

• Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico, including Cozumel

Hurricane Watch

• Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, Florida

• Pinar del Rio Province, Cuba

Tropical Storm Warning

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

• Artemisa and Pinar del Rio provinces and the Isle of Youth, Cuba

• The Florida Keys including Dry Tortugas, Florida

• Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, Florida

• West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida

• Flamingo, Florida, northward to the South Santee River, South Carolina

• Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Tropical Storm Watch

• North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

Storm Surge Warning

• Indian Pass southward to Flamingo, Florida

• Tampa Bay, Florida

• Charlotte Harbor, Florida

Storm Surge Watch

• West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Mexico over the coming hours and within the US hurricane warning area late Sept. 26. Hurricane conditions are also possible in western Cuba Sept. 25. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southern Florida Sept. 25, spreading northward through Sept. 26, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area Sept. 26.

The storm is forecast to generate rainfall amounts of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) with isolated higher totals of around 30 cm (12 inches) across parts of western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. Rainfall amounts of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) with isolated higher totals around 38 cm (15 inches) are expected over parts of the southeastern US and into the southern Appalachian mountains. The heavy downpours could trigger considerable flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of steep terrain in the southern Appalachians. Isolated tornadoes are possible over parts of the western Florida peninsula and southern Alabama late Sept. 25-early Sept. 26 before spreading across Florida and into parts of Georgia and South Carolina Sept. 26.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, and along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Peak surge could reach up to 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) between Carrabelle and Chassahowitzka in Florida and 0.9-3 meters (3-10 feet) along other parts of Florida's Gulf Coast. Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico over the coming days and will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast Sept. 25-26. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency across 41 of the state's 67 counties Sept. 24. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders are in place across 13 counties, including mandatory orders in parts of Charlotte, Citrus, Franklin, Gulf, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pinellas, Taylor, and Wakulla counties. A curfew is also in effect from sunrise to sunset in Taylor County. Authorities will likely issue further mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders across counties along the Panhandle, Tampa Bay area, and west coast of Florida as the storm approaches. Several schools and universities in areas along Florida's Gulf Coast have been closed. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has also declared a state of emergency Sept. 24 due to the anticipated impacts from the storm.

Sir Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) and Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) in the Cayman Islands closed late Sept. 23 through Sept. 24, with flights resuming at 07:00 Sept. 25. Banks, courts, and non-emergency health services were also closed across the Cayman Islands Sept. 24 and schools remain closed as of Sept. 25. Cruise ship arrivals at ports in Quintana Roo State, Mexico, have been canceled late Sept. 24-25. Several shelters have been opened in northern parts of Quintana Roo and banks are closed in the region. Oil companies have evacuated personnel from some production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.