Germany: Adverse weather forecast across southern Bavaria State through at least early Oct. 5

Severe weather is forecast across parts of southern Bavaria State through at least early Oct. 5. Heavy rainfall is expected across Alpine areas, with snowfall likely in higher elevations. Rainfall totals of around 5 cm (2 inches) are forecast, with snowfall accumulations of up to 40 cm (16 inches) possible over the highest peaks. Heavy downpours may cause flooding in low-lying areas and hazardous travel conditions are likely due to heavy snow in the higher elevations.

As of Oct. 3, the German Weather Service (DWD) has issued orange rainfall warnings (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) across the affected area and yellow snowfall warnings across much of the region. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow, and decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides are possible in areas of elevated terrain, and avalanches are possible in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Heavy snow could make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.