Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Milton tracking east-northeastward away from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, early Oct. 8 /update 4

Hurricane Milton has weakened back into a Category 4 hurricane and is tracking east-northeastward away from the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico early Oct. 8. As of 10:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 205 km (130 miles) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks generally northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Oct. 8-9, before turning east-northeastward and making landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula just south of Tampa Bay around midnight Oct. 9. The system is forecast to weaken into a Category 2 hurricane as it tracks east-northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and enters the North Atlantic Ocean early Oct. 10. Milton will then likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks east-northeastward across the North Atlantic Ocean Oct. 10-11 and passes south of Bermuda Oct. 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 8, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico

• Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

• Florida east coast from the Indian River-St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

Hurricane Watch

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

• Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

• Dry Tortugas, Florida

• Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Tropical Storm Warning

• Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico

• All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

• Lake Okeechobee, Florida

• Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

• Florida east coast south of the Indian River-St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo

• Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

Tropical Storm Watch

• Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

• Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, South Carolina

Storm Surge Warning

• West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

• East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River

Storm Surge Watch

• South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet

• Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Hurricane conditions and tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico Oct. 8. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida late Oct. 8-early Oct. 9 and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida early Oct. 9, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast by late Oct. 9.

Rainfall amounts of 12.5-30 cm (5-12 inches), with localized totals of up to 46 cm (18 inches), are forecast across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Oct. 9. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected across the Florida Keys through Oct. 9. Milton will also produce additional rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), with localized totals up to 15 cm (6 inches), across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida late Oct. 8-9.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1.2-2.4 meters (4-6 feet) above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The water could reach around 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) above ground from the Anclote River to Englewood and Tampa Bay and 0.9-3 meters (3-10 feet) across other parts of the Florida coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells from the system are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Yucatan State organized buses to evacuate residents from the coastal city of Progreso. Voluntary evacuations are in place for Isla Holbox. Dozens of emergency shelters have been opened across Yucatan and Quintana Roo states; a full list of shelters open in Yucatan can be found HERE. Flights have been suspended at Merida International Airport (MID) from 15:00 Oct. 7 through at least 09:00 Oct. 8. Cancelations and delays have also been reported at Cancun International Airport (CUN). Trains between San Francisco de Campeche and Cancun have been suspended. Authorities ordered the cancellation of all nonessential activities except for grocery stores, hospitals, pharmacies, and gas stations across parts of Yucatan from Oct. 7. All ports and schools in the state are also closed.

Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast, and strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennessee, and 2 in Virginia.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties late Oct. 5 ahead of Milton's approach and expanded the order to include 16 more counties Oct. 6. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders affecting more than one million people are in place across counties along Florida's west coast, including mandatory evacuation orders in parts of Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, and Volusia counties; for the latest information concerning evacuations, click HERE. A list of shelters for evacuated residents can be found HERE.

Tampa International Airport (TPA) is closed from 09:00 Oct. 8. Peter O. Knight (TPF), Tampa Executive (VDF), and Plant City (PCM) airports will also close early Oct. 8. St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE) will close after the last flight Oct. 8, while Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) will close 16:00 Oct. 8, Orlando Executive Airport (ORL) late Oct. 8, and Orlando International Airport (MCO) early Oct. 9. Further flight disruptions are likely in affected regions over the coming days. Port Tampa Bay has closed to inbound and outbound shipping early Oct. 8; operations on land will continue to be conducted as long as it is safe to do so. Amtrak trains 91 and 97 on the Silver Service route will terminate at Jacksonville through Oct. 10, while trains 92 and 98 will originate at Jacksonville Oct. 8-11. The Auto Train Service, connecting Washington, D.C., and Orlando, Florida, is canceled Oct. 8-10. Brightline, Florida's high-speed rail, is suspending operations between West Palm Beach and Orlando Oct. 9-10. SunRail services are suspended Oct. 8-10.

Significant traffic disruptions are ongoing as evacuated residents attempt to depart the affected areas, with long tailbacks reported along sections of the I-4, I-75, I-95 I-275, I-75, and other major highways out of the area Oct. 7-8. The Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority (HART) will suspend services from noon Oct. 8, while the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority (PSTA) will suspend services, including the Jolley Trolley and Looper, from 14:00 Oct. 8. Authorities have suspended tolls across Central Florida and West Florida, as well as Alligator Alley, through noon Oct. 14.

All FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers in Florida suspended operations after the close of business late Oct. 7 in preparation for the severe weather. Schools in more than 20 counties and several universities across the affected area are closed through at least Oct. 10; additional closures across much of the state will go into effect Oct. 9-10.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.