Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Milton tracking eastward across Gulf of Mexico late Oct. 6 /update 1

Hurricane Milton has intensified rapidly and is tracking eastward across the Gulf of Mexico late Oct. 6. As of 22:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 370 km (230 miles) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly early Oct. 7 before strengthening again as it tracks eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and makes a close approach to the northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico late Oct. 7. Milton will then likely turn to track northeastward, strengthen into a category 4 hurricane, and make landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, US, near Sarasota-Bradenton, the evening of Oct. 9. The system is forecast to weaken after crossing the Florida Peninsula and entering the North Atlantic Ocean early Oct. 10, before weaning further into a tropical storm as it tracks away from Florida toward Bermuda through late Oct. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 6, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Watch

• Celestun to Cabo Catoche, Mexicio

Tropical Storm Warning

• Celestun to Cancun, Mexico
  

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Tropical storm conditions are forecast to begin in the warning area early Oct. 7 and hurricane conditions are possible from the afternoon of Oct. 7. Rainfall amounts of 13-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized totals of up to 38 cm (15 inches), are forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through late Oct. 9. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.

A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells from the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late Oct. 6 and will likely spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast, and strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennessee, and 2 in Virginia. As of late Oct. 6, more than 10,000 people in Florida, 79,000 in Georgia, 56,000 in South Carolina, and 132,000 in North Carolina remain without power. Additional rainfall and strong winds brought by Milton will likely lead to more damage, exacerbating the current situation and hampering recovery efforts.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties late Oct. 5 ahead of the storm and expanded the order to include 16 more counties Oct. 6. Mandatory evacuation orders are in place across Lee, Manatee, Pasco, and Pinellas counties in Florida, including the entire town of Fort Myers Beach; for the latest information concerning evacuations, click HERE. All FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers in Florida will suspend operations after the close of business Oct. 7 in preparation for the severe weather. Some schools across the affected are closed through at least Oct. 10.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.