Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Milton tracking eastward, to make close approach to the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, through Oct. 8 /update 3

Hurricane Milton has strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane and is tracking eastward across the Gulf of Mexico late Oct. 7. As of 22:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 60 km (35 miles) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a Category 4 hurricane as it tracks northeastward just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula through Oct. 8. Milton will then track northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Oct. 8-9, and is currently forecast to weaken into a Category 3 hurricane just before making landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula near Tampa Bay the evening of Oct. 9. The system is forecast to weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks east-northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and enters the North Atlantic Ocean early Oct. 10. Milton will then likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks east-northeastward across the North Atlantic Ocean towards Bermuda Oct. 11-12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 7, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Celestun to Rio Lagartos, Mexico

• Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

Hurricane Watch

• Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico

• Campeche to south of Celestun, Mexico

• Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

• Dry Tortugas, Florida

• Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Tropical Storm Warning

• Rio Lagartos to Cancun, Mexico

• Campeche to south of Celestun, Mexico

• All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas

• Lake Okeechobee

• Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass

Tropical Storm Watch

• East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo

• Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

Storm Surge Warning

• The west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

Storm Surge Watch

• Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Hurricane conditions are likely in the warning area in Mexico over the coming hours and are possible in the watch areas in Mexico late Oct. 7-8. Hurricane conditions are probable in the warning area on the west coast of Florida the afternoon of Oct. 8, and could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas later the same day.

Rainfall amounts of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized totals of up to 38 cm (15 inches), are forecast across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through late Oct. 9. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), with localized totals up to 15 cm (6 inches), across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida late Oct. 7-8.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1.2-2.4 meters (4-6 feet) above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico in areas of onshore winds. The water could reach around 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) above ground from the Anclote River to Englewood and Tampa Bay and 0.9-3 meters (3-10 feet) across other parts of the Florida coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells from the system will probably continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities in Yucatan State organized buses to evacuate residents from the coastal city of Progreso. Voluntary evacuations are in place for Isla Holbox. Authorities ordered the cancellation of all nonessential activities except for grocery stores, hospitals, pharmacies, and gas stations from Oct. 7. All ports and schools in the state are also closed.

Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast, and strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennessee, and 2 in Virginia.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties late Oct. 5 ahead of Milton's approach and expanded the order to include 16 more counties Oct. 6. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida. Mandatory evacuation orders are in place across counties along Florida's west coast, including parts of Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, and Volusia counties; for the latest information concerning evacuations, click HERE. Tampa International Airport (TPA) will be closed from 09:00 Oct. 8. Peter O. Knight (TPF), Tampa Executive (VDF), and Plant City (PCM) airports will also close early Oct. 8. St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport (PIE) will close after the last flight Oct. 8, while Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ) will close 16:00 Oct. 8, Orlando Executive Airport (ORL) late Oct. 8, and Orlando International Airport (MCO) early Oct. 9. Further flight disruptions are likely in affected regions over the coming days. Amtrak trains 91 and 97 on the Silver Service route will terminate at Jacksonville through Oct. 10, while trains 92 and 98 will originate at Jacksonville Oct. 8-11. The Auto Train Service, connecting Washington, D.C., and Orlando, Florida, is canceled Oct. 8-10. Brightline, Florida's high-speed rail, is suspending operations between West Palm Beach and Orlando Oct. 9-10. SunRail services are suspended Oct. 8-10.

I-75 between Morris Bridge and Bruce B Downs is experiencing significant backups, while I-275 northbound heading into Pasco County is also seeing heavy traffic, with significant slowdowns starting at 275 and Livingston Avenue. Emergency Shoulder Use (ESU) has been activated to aid evacuations along I-4 eastbound, I-75 to Champions Gate, I-75 northbound, and I-4 to I-10. The Hillsborough Area Regional Transit Authority (HART) will suspend services from noon Oct. 8, while the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority (PSTA) will suspend services, including the Jolley Trolley and Looper, from 14:00 Oct. 8. Authorities have suspended tolls across Central Florida and West Florida, as well as Alligator Alley, through noon Oct. 14.

All FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers in Florida will suspend operations after the close of business late Oct. 7 in preparation for the severe weather. Schools in more than 20 counties and several universities across the affected area are closed through at least Oct. 10; additional closures across much of the state will go into effect Oct. 9-10.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.