Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Milton tracking northeastward toward Florida Oct. 9 /update 6

Hurricane Milton has weakened back into a Category 4 hurricane and is tracking northeastward in the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida Oct. 9. As of 11:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 305 km (190 miles) southwest of Tampa, Florida.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a Category 3 hurricane as it tracks northeastward and then turns east-northeastward just before making landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula near Sarasota late Oct. 9. The system is forecast to weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northeastward across the Florida Peninsula early Oct. 10 and enters the North Atlantic Ocean late morning Oct. 10. Milton will then likely gradually weaken and transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks eastward then east-northeastward across the North Atlantic Ocean Oct. 11-12 and passes south of Bermuda late Oct. 12-early Oct. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 9, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

• Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

Hurricane Watch

• Florida's west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida's east coast, north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River

• Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

• Dry Tortugas

• Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Warning

• All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

• Lake Okeechobee

• Florida's west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida's west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass

• Florida's east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo

• North of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia

• Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

Tropical Storm Watch

• North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South Carolina

Storm Surge Warning

• Florida's west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

• Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River

Storm Surge Watch

• North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Edisto Beach, South Carolina

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida late Oct. 9-early Oct. 10 and are possible in the hurricane watch area Oct. 10. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida over the next few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast late Oct. 9. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning areas on the Georgia coast and in the Bahamas and are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast Oct. 10.

Rainfall amounts of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches), with localized totals of up to 46 cm (18 inches), are forecast across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Oct. 10. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida Oct. 9-early Oct. 10.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3-4.5 meters (10-15 feet) above ground from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande and Tampa Bay, 2.4-3.7 meters (8-12 feet) from the Anclote River to Anna Maria Island, Tampa Bay, Boca Grande to Bonita Beach, and Charlotte Harbor, and 0.6-2.4 meters (2-8 feet) across other parts of the Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts. Near the coast, large and destructive waves will accompany the surge. Swells from the system will likely continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast over the coming days and will increase along the southeast coast of the US. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast. Strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennessee, and two in Virginia.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties late Oct. 5 ahead of Milton's approach and expanded the order to include 16 more counties Oct. 6. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders affecting more than one million people are in place across counties along Florida's west coast, including mandatory evacuation orders in parts of Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Desoto, Flagler, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, St. Johns, and Volusia counties; the latest information concerning evacuations can be found HERE. Authorities have warned that the time window for evacuation is running out. A list of shelters for evacuated residents can be found HERE. Free Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) evacuation shuttles are operating in Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough counties, helping residents reach shelters. The State of Florida has partnered with Uber to provide residents in mandatory evacuation zones free rides to a local shelter with the promo code MILTONRELIEF. Curfews have been announced overnight Oct. 9-10 in Flagler County, Volusia County, Fort Myers Beach, Naples, and Sanibel.

Tampa International (TPA), Peter O. Knight (TPF), Tampa Executive (VDF), Plant City (PCM), St. Pete-Clearwater International (PIE), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Orlando Executive (ORL), Orlando International (MCO), Orlando Sanford International (SFB), Daytona Beach International (DAB), Lakeland Linder International (LAL), and Southwest Florida International (RSW) airports are closed as of early Oct. 9, while Melbourne Orlando International Airport (MLB) will close the afternoon of Oct. 9 and Palm Beach International Airport (PIB) will close at 21:00 Oct. 9. Further flight disruptions are likely in affected regions over the coming days. Most ports in Florida are closed. Amtrak trains 91 and 97 on the Silver Service route will terminate at Jacksonville through Oct. 10, while trains 92 and 98 will originate at Jacksonville Oct. 8-11. The Auto Train Service, connecting Washington, D.C., and Orlando, Florida, is canceled Oct. 8-10. Brightline, Florida's high-speed rail, will suspend operations between West Palm Beach and Orlando Oct. 9-10. SunRail services are suspended Oct. 8-10.

Significant traffic disruptions are ongoing as evacuated residents attempt to depart the affected areas, with long tailbacks reported along sections of the I-4, I-75, I-95, I-275, I-75, and other major highways out of the area Oct. 7-9; authorities are encouraging residents to leave via state roads as well. Many gas stations are reporting fuel shortages along evacuation routes. Georgia's interstate highways are seeing significant increases in traffic volume, especially along I-75, I-95, and I-16, as Florida residents evacuate; highway speeds remain normal. The transit agencies in Charlotte, Collier, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Monroe, Orange, Pascoe, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, and St. Johns counties have suspended or modified services. Authorities have suspended tolls across Central Florida and West Florida, as well as Alligator Alley and 595 Express, through noon Oct. 14.

All FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers in Florida suspended operations after the close of business late Oct. 7 in preparation for the severe weather. Schools in more than 20 counties and several universities across the affected area are closed through at least Oct. 10; additional closures across much of the state will go into effect Oct. 9-10.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.