India: Rallies, tight security likely to intensify in Manipur through at least late November amid recurring sporadic incidents of violence /update 31

Recurring rallies, heightened security measures, and associated disruptions will likely persist in Manipur State through at least late November. Renewed protest campaigns, clashes between activists and security personnel, and related curfews continue to unfold. In recent days, activists staged a shutdown strike and road blockades in Tuibong, Churachandpur District, prompting officials to impose an indefinite curfew and restrict public gatherings of five or more people; as of Oct. 28, it remains unclear if the curfew is still in effect in Tuibong. Similar demonstrations have also taken place in Imphal.

Sporadic violence remains a concern in several regions. On Oct. 28, authorities discovered a hand grenade with a warning note at the entrance of GP Women's College near the Governor's House (Raj Bhavan) and other prominent government buildings in Imphal, which led to the deployment of a bomb disposal team. Additionally, routine recoveries of weapons and explosives continue, with recent joint operations resulting in the seizure of several firearms and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) across multiple districts, including Churachandpur, Imphal East, Imphal West, Kangpokpi, and Thoubal.

Activists will likely continue to stage sporadic protests across the state, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and roadblocks. Such actions have previously disrupted cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of Manipur. Prolonged roadblocks have also been known to affect the transport of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as other prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across Manipur for the foreseeable future, potentially imposing further internet and mobile communications suspensions, as well as other restrictions, such as curfews, depending on changing operational needs. The government has deployed paramilitary forces along various state highways to ensure unimpeded transport movement in Manipur.

Law enforcement personnel may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.