Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least Oct. 17

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least Oct. 17. A combination of meteorological phenomena is expected to generate heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across many parts of the country over the coming days. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and hail are possible during storms. A tropical wave, a low-pressure area off the southern coast, and a low-pressure channel over the Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to eastern, southern, and southeastern regions over the coming days. Low-pressure channels over central, northwestern, and western Mexico will bring further showers and storms to these regions. A cold front is forecast to move into northeastern Mexico Oct. 16-17, bringing heavy rainfall and thunderstorms as well as generating a surge of cold winds known as a Norte event on the coasts of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong winds may generate dust storms in arid areas of northern and central Mexico and rough seas in coastal areas.

Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are forecast across parts of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan states Oct. 14, Chiapas Oct. 15-17, and Tabasco Oct. 16-17. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are forecast across much of the rest of central, eastern, northeastern, and southern Mexico Oct. 14-17. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes across parts of the affected area over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Further landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.