01 Oct 2024 | 11:45 PM UTC
Mexico: Tropical Depression 11 tracking northward towards Oaxaca State as of afternoon Oct. 1
TD 11 tracking northward across the Pacific Ocean afternoon Oct. 1. Landfall likely over eastern Oaxaca State, Mexico, evening Oct. 2.
Tropical Depression 11 is tracking northward across the Pacific Ocean towards Oaxaca State the afternoon of Oct. 1. As of 15:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 140 km (85 miles) south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm over the coming hours before continuing northwards and making landfall near Salina Cruz, Oaxaca State, the evening of Oct. 2. The storm is likely to weaken, transition into a post-tropical cyclone, and dissipate over far northeastern Oaxaca State the afternoon of Oct. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast and significant changes could occur in the coming days. As of the afternoon of Oct. 1, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning
East of Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan
Tropical Storm Watch
East of Boca de Pijijiapan to the Mexico/Guatemala Border
Tropical storm conditions are forecast to begin in the warning area early Oct. 2 and are possible in the watch area the afternoon of Oct. 2. The storm is forecast to produce rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with localized amounts up to 30 cm (12 inches), across portions of western Guatemala and Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco states in Mexico. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and landslides. Swells generated by the storm are affecting portions of the coast of southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect—and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
