Senegal: Political gatherings likely nationwide ahead of Nov. 17 legislative elections amid heightened tensions

Political gatherings are likely ahead of the Nov. 17 legislative election amid heightened nationwide tensions. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko is campaigning countrywide, dubbed the National Caravan, to garner support in the National Assembly under the African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF) party. Opposition activist organizations, including various political parties, religious organizations, and trade unions, will likely stage protest campaigns in the coming weeks. Following the dissolution of the opposition-majority parliament by President Bassirou Faye last September, heightened tensions will likely persist in the run-up to the elections. Reports indicate an unspecified security incident on the prime minister's convoy occurred while in Koungheul, Kaffrine region, on Oct. 30, resulting in an injury to a former government minister and damage to a vehicle. Security forces responded promptly to intervene and exercised control of the situation.

The tense political environment could escalate as election day approaches. Demonstrations, rallies, and protests are likely in Dakar and other urban areas. Security force deployments will probably be heavily concentrated near public squares, polling stations, and government facilities to prevent violence. Authorities will likely use force to disperse any protests that materialize, and clashes remain possible. Enhanced security measures may include the establishment of additional checkpoints, curfews, and vehicle travel restrictions. Acts of looting and vandalism, including arson, cannot be ruled out. Other travel restrictions, particularly in Dakar and Ziguinchor, may be imposed with little warning. Disruptions to urban and intercity transport, business operations, telecommunications, internet, and social media are likely in the event of significant bouts of civil unrest or during preemptive security operations.