South China Sea: Typhoon Krathon tracking north-northwestward in the South China Sea late Oct. 1 /update 5

Typhoon Krathon (named Julian in the Philippines) is tracking north-northwestward over the South China Sea late Oct. 1. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 478 km (297 miles) south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken but remain a typhoon as it tracks northward and then northeastward over the eastern South China Sea late Oct. 1-early Oct. 3, before making landfall over Tainan City, Taiwan, during the morning Oct. 3. After landfall, Krathon will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northeastward over central Taiwan Oct. 3-4. The system will weaken further as it turns to track north-northwestward over northern Taiwan late Oct. 4 and will enter the Taiwan Strait late Oct. 5 before dissipating late Oct. 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 1, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued sea and land typhoon warnings; the areas under land warning include Changhua, Chiayi, Hualien, Nantou, Penghu, Pingtung, Taitung, and Yunlin counties and Chiayi, Kaohsiung, Taichung, and Tainan cities. Purple extremely heavy rain advisories (the highest level on a four-tier scale) are in place across Taitung County and mountainous parts of Pingtung County, and red, orange, and yellow heavy rain advisories are in effect across the rest of eastern and southern and much of northern Taiwan. Strong wind advisories are in place for most coastal areas.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued an updated weather bulletin advising that the system will continue to bring strong winds to northern regions and rough seas to coastal waters. PAGASA is maintaining a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, northern and western Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Batanes, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, northern and western Isabela, and northwestern Nueva Vizcaya provinces. A separate weather advisory is also in place for further heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across far northern regions. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are expected across the Babuyan Islands, Batanes Province, and Ilocos Norte Province Oct. 1-2. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Flooding, damage, and other weather-related disruptions are ongoing across parts of the northern Philippines after the storm tracked close to the northeast of Luzon Sept. 28-29 and over the Batanes Islands early Sept. 30. Two fatalities have been reported in Ilocos Norte Province, where officials have declared a State of Calamity. Another fatality occurred in Cagayan Province. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported almost 2,000 people have been displaced and over 77,000 affected across Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera regions. Many roads and bridges in the affected regions have been damaged or blocked by flooding and landslides, leaving some communities cut off. Operations remain suspended at several regional airports in northern Luzon as of Oct. 1. Schools are also closed across parts of the affected areas.

Taiwan authorities have evacuated more than 500 people from landslide-prone mountainous areas ahead of the storm's approach and urged people to avoid visiting coastal and mountainous areas. Disruptions are already being reported in some areas as the storm approaches; landslides along Provincial Highway No 9 have disrupted traffic between Su'ao in Yilan County and Chongde in Hualien County and around eight vehicles were trapped near Huide Tunnel; all 14 stranded individuals have been rescued. Airlines canceled some international and domestic flights across Taiwan Oct. 1 and all domestic flights and several international flights have been canceled Oct. 2. Transportation between Hualien and Taitung, along with sections of the South Link Line, has been halted. Taiwan's national parks, beaches, and ferry services have also been suspended as safety measures. Schools and offices have been closed in six cities and counties in southern and eastern Taiwan.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.