South China Sea: Typhoon Krathon tracking northeastward toward southwestern Taiwan early Oct. 3 /update 8

Typhoon Krathon (named Julian in the Philippines) is tracking northeastward over the South China Sea toward southwestern Taiwan early Oct. 3. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 41 km (25 miles) southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over Kaohsiung City, Taiwan over the coming hours. After landfall, Krathon will weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northward over eastern Tainan City and central Chiayi County into eastern Yulin County early Oct. 4 before weakening further into a tropical depression as it makes a sharp turn to track northwestward and exit into the Taiwan Strait off far southwestern Changhua County the afternoon of Oct. 4. Krathon is forecast to turn to track southwestward late Oct. 4, passing just north of Penghu County, and dissipating just west of the county early Oct. 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 3, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued sea and land typhoon warnings across most of Taiwan except for Kinmen and Lienchiang counties and Keelung, New Taipei, Taipei, and Taoyuan cities. Purple extremely heavy rain advisories (the highest level on a four-tier scale) are in place across Taitung County, mountainous parts of Pingtung County, and the north coast of Keelung City. Red, orange, and yellow heavy rain advisories are in effect across much of the rest of Taiwan. Short-term thunderstorm warnings have also been issued across parts of Taiwan and strong wind advisories are in place for most coastal areas.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is maintaining a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) for Batanes Province. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Flooding, damage, and other weather-related disruptions are ongoing across parts of the northern Philippines after the storm tracked close to the northeast of Luzon Sept. 28-29 and over the Batanes Islands early Sept. 30. Two fatalities have been reported in Ilocos Norte Province, where officials have declared a State of Calamity. Another fatality occurred in Cagayan Province due to electrocution. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported that nearly 2,800 people remain displaced and around 200,000 people have been affected across Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera regions as of late Oct. 2. Many roads and bridges in the affected regions have been damaged or blocked by flooding and landslides, leaving some communities cut off. More than 300 homes have been damaged and hundreds of schools remain closed across the affected regions.

Taiwan authorities have evacuated almost 10,000 people from vulnerable and landslide-prone mountainous areas ahead of the storm's approach, with the worst affected Hualien County and Kaohsiung City, and urged people to avoid visiting coastal and mountainous areas. Authorities have warned residents in Kaohsiung City to take shelter and avoid the sea. Severe weather and associated disruptions have been reported in some areas since late Sept. 29 as the storm approaches. Authorities have reported two weather-related fatalities, more than 100 others injured, and two people missing as of early Oct. 3. Landslides have disrupted rail and road networks in some eastern and southern areas, including along Provincial Highway No 9 in Yilan County and Chongde in Hualien County. Airlines canceled some international and domestic flights across Taiwan Oct. 1 and all domestic and dozens of international flights Oct. 2-3. Authorities have halted transportation services between Hualien and Taitung, sections of the South Link Line, and Jiji Line and Shalun Line in central Taiwan. Trains from Taipei to Hualien will run only to Heren or Heping stations, while trains from Hualien to Yilan will operate to Xincheng station in Hualien County. The Taiwan High Speed Rail (THSR) has suspended services on the southern sections from Changhua to Zuoying stations through at least 14:00 Oct. 3 and has scaled back services; operations between Nangang and Taichung are scheduled to continue. Many public transportation services in Kaohsiung are suspended or reduced, including the suspension of the city bus services and Kaohsiung Light Rail, while the Kaohsiung MRT services have been reduced to one train every 20 minutes. Taiwan's national parks and beaches are closed. Ferry operators have suspended services. Schools and offices are closed across Taiwan through at least Oct. 3. The Taipei city government declared a typhoon holiday Oct. 2-3, shutting financial markets. More than 6,800 households across Taiwan are without power.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.