Taiwan Strait: Tropical Storm Kong-rey tracking northward over Taiwan Strait early Nov. 1 following landfall over Taiwan Oct. 31 /update 8

Tropical Storm Kong-rey (known in the Philippines as Leon) is tracking northward across the Taiwan Strait early Nov. 1, having made landfall over Chenggong Township in Taitung County, Taiwan, at around 13:40 CST Oct. 31. As of 05:00, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,280 km (795 miles) southwest of Sasebo, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will weaken as it turns to track north-northeastward off the coast of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, China, before turning northeastward across the East China Sea late Nov. 1-2. The storm is forecast to weaken slightly as it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone, though sustaining tropical storm strength as it makes another landfall over Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, the afternoon Nov. 2. Kong-rey will then track east-northeastward across southern Kyushu Island and make subsequent landfalls over western Ehime, far southeastern Kochi, and Wakayama prefectures through late Nov. 2. The storm will likely weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks just off the coast of southeastern Honshu and continues eastward away from Japan through early Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Warnings
As of early Nov. 1, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration is maintaining a sea and land tropical Storm warning across northern and east central Taiwan. Orange extremely heavy rain advisories (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) are in effect across central Taiwan and yellow advisories are in place across much of the rest of central and southern Taiwan. Strong wind advisories are in place across northern coastal areas of Taiwan.

The China Meteorological Administration maintains a yellow typhoon warning (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) warning of strong winds and rough seas in coastal areas and heavy rainfall over central and eastern Zhejiang, Shanghai, and southeastern Jiangsu provinces. Rainfall totals of 10-18 cm (4-7 inches) are forecast Nov. 1. A separate blue rainstorm warning is in effect over the affected areas of eastern and southeastern China, as well as orange and yellow flood and landslide warnings over parts of the affected area.

Ongoing Disruptions
Heavy rainfall and strong winds are causing flooding, landslides, and associated disruptions across parts of Taiwan as of Oct. 31. Authorities have reported at least one fatality in Nantou County after a tree fell on a vehicle on Provincial Highway 14A Oct. 31. Reports indicate up to 205 other injuries. Flooding and landslides have blocked several roads, particularly in eastern areas of the country, and flooding washed away a bridge in Hualien County's Fuli Township. More than 250,000 households have been affected by power outages across parts of Taiwan.

Authorities have evacuated more than 9,600 people across New Taipei, Tainan, and Kaohsiung cities and Hsinchu, Nantou, Pingtung, Yilan, Hualien and Taitung counties ahead of the storm's approach; more than 1,800 people remain in 91 emergency shelters. Schools and offices were closed across all cities and counties Oct. 31; most schools and offices are scheduled to reopen Nov. 1. Financial markets were also closed Oct. 31.

Authorities canceled a total of 241 passenger and cargo flights at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport (TPE) as of early Nov. 1. UNI Air (B7) and Mandarin Airlines (AE) canceled all domestic flights Oct. 31. Hong Kong Express Airways (UO) canceled 18 flights connecting Hong Kong with major Taiwanese cities, including Taipei, Kaohsiung, and Taichung Oct. 31. China Airlines (CI), Tigerair Taiwan (IT), Singapore Airlines (SQ), and Starlux Airlines (JX) issued notices of delays, rescheduling or cancelations of international flights to and from Taiwan. Most flights are scheduled to resume Nov. 1, except for services to and from the Matsu Islands. The Taiwan Railway Corp. canceled all express trains on its Western Trunk Line, Eastern Trunk Line, South-Link Line, and attached branches due to the typhoon. The Taoyuan Metro Corp. also announced cancellation of all express and extended service trains on the Taoyuan Airport MRT Oct. 31 and the Taipei Metro announced the suspension of its services on elevated rail sections beginning from 11:00 Oct. 31 due to strong winds from Tropical Storm Kong-rey. Commuter trains between Keelung and Changhua County were suspended from 12:00 Oct. 31 and many other rail services across Taiwan are operating on reduced schedules. Most ferry services across Taiwan were suspended and some national parks are closed.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.