US: Hurricane Milton tracking east-northeastward across Florida late Oct. 9 /update 7

Hurricane Milton has weakened into a Category 2 hurricane and is tracking east-northeastward across central Florida late Oct. 9 following landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Siesta Key in Sarasota County around 20:30 EDT Oct. 9. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 120 km (75 miles) southwest of Orlando, Florida.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks east-northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and enters the North Atlantic Ocean early Oct. 10. Milton will then likely gradually weaken and transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it moves eastward across the North Atlantic Ocean Oct. 11-12 and passes south of Bermuda late Oct. 12-early Oct. 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 9, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

Hurricane Warning

• Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

• Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

Hurricane Watch

• Florida's east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

• Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Warning

• All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

• Lake Okeechobee

• Florida's west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

• Florida's west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass

• Florida's east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo

• North of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina

• Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

Storm Surge Warning

• Florida's west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

• Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Altamaha Sound, Georgia, including the St. Johns River

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm system develops.

Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area, are spreading east-northeastward across the Florida peninsula, and are possible in the hurricane watch area late Oct. 9-10. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida, have already reached the east coast of Florida, and are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast Oct. 10. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas Oct. 10.

Rainfall amounts of 20-36 cm (8-14 inches), with localized totals of up to 46 cm (18 inches), are forecast across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Oct. 10. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida through early Oct. 10.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2.7-4 meters (9-13 feet) above ground from Anna Maria Island to Boca Grande and Tampa Bay, 2.4-3.7 meters (8-12 feet) from Boca Grande to Bonita Beach and Charlotte Harbor, and 0.6-2.4 meters (2-8 feet) across other parts of the Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coasts. Near the coast, large and destructive waves will accompany the surge. Swells from the system will likely continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast over the coming days and will increase along the southeast coast of the US. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Much of the eastern and southeastern US is still recovering following the passage of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Perry in Florida's Big Bend region at around 11:10 EDT Sept. 26. Intense winds and storm surge caused severe damage in the Big Bend region of Florida as the storm crossed the coast. Strong winds, tornadoes, and persistent rainfall continued to cause flooding and damage as the system moved inland. At least 227 fatalities associated with Helene were reported: 113 in North Carolina, 48 in South Carolina, 33 in Georgia, 20 in Florida, 11 in Tennessee, and two in Virginia.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties late Oct. 5 ahead of Milton's approach and expanded the order to include 16 more counties Oct. 6. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida. Mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders affecting millions of people are in place across counties along Florida's west coast, including mandatory evacuation orders in parts of Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Desoto, Flagler, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, St. Johns, and Volusia counties; the latest information concerning evacuations can be found HERE. Authorities have warned that the time window for evacuations is running out. Almost 150 shelters are open, supporting over 31,000 people; a list of shelters for evacuated residents can be found HERE. Free Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) evacuation shuttles are operating in Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough counties, helping residents reach shelters. The State of Florida has partnered with Uber to provide residents in mandatory evacuation zones free rides to a local shelter with the promo code MILTONRELIEF. Curfews have been announced overnight Oct. 9-10 in Flagler County, Volusia County, Fort Myers Beach, Naples, and Sanibel.

Tampa International (TPA), Peter O. Knight (TPF), Tampa Executive (VDF), Plant City (PCM), St. Pete-Clearwater International (PIE), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Orlando Executive (ORL), Orlando International (MCO), Orlando Sanford International (SFB), Daytona Beach International (DAB), Lakeland Linder International (LAL), Southwest Florida International (RSW), Melbourne Orlando International (MLB), Punta Gorda (PGD), and Palm Beach International (PIB) airports are closed as of late Oct. 9. Further flight disruptions are likely in affected regions over the coming days. Ports Canaveral, Key West, Tampa Bay, St. Petersburg, Fort Pierce, Palm Beach, Fernandina, SeaPort Manatee, and JAXPORT are closed, while ports Everglades and Miami are operating with restrictions to inbound vessels; ports of Pensacola and Panama City remain open and are monitoring the storm. Amtrak trains 91 and 97 on the Silver Service route will terminate at Jacksonville through Oct. 10, while trains 92 and 98 will originate at Jacksonville Oct. 8-11. The Auto Train Service, connecting Washington, D.C., and Orlando, Florida, is canceled Oct. 8-10. Brightline, Florida's high-speed rail, will suspend operations between West Palm Beach and Orlando Oct. 9-10. SunRail services remain suspended until at least Oct. 10.

Major bridges in Tampa Bay are closed, including the Sunshine Skyway, Howard Frankland Bridge, Gandy Causeway, and Courtney Campbell Causeway. Significant traffic disruptions are ongoing as evacuated residents attempt to depart the affected areas, with long tailbacks reported along sections of the I-4, I-75, I-95, I-275, I-75, and other major highways out of the area Oct. 9; authorities are encouraging residents to leave via state roads as well. Many gas stations are reporting fuel shortages along evacuation routes. Georgia's interstate highways are seeing significant increases in traffic volume, especially along I-75, I-95, and I-16, as Florida residents evacuate; highway speeds remain normal. The transit agencies in Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Collier, Hernando, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Monroe, Orange, Palm Beach, Pascoe, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, St. Johns, and St. Lucie counties have suspended or modified services. Authorities have suspended tolls across Central Florida and West Florida, as well as Alligator Alley and 595 Express, through noon Oct. 14.

Flooding is occurring in the Tampa Bay area, including St. Petersburg. Reports indicate that multiple people were killed at the Spanish Lakes Country Club. Around 125 homes - mostly mobile houses - were damaged by tornadoes even before Milton made landfall.

Authorities have told residents in parts of St. Petersburg, Florida, to limit water usage; the city shut down power at two sewer treatment plants as a precaution due to the forecast storm surge. All FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers in Florida suspended operations after the close of business late Oct. 7 in preparation for the severe weather. Schools in 46 counties and several universities across the affected area are closed through at least Oct. 10. At least 352 healthcare facilities have reported evacuations, including 16 hospitals. As of late Oct. 9, more than 1,869,000 people across Florida and more than 37,000 people in Georgia are without power.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria.