06 Nov 2024 | 07:38 PM UTC
Bangladesh: Ongoing protests, related disruptions likely to continue nationwide into at least early December /update 28
Ongoing rallies, related disruptions likely to persist across Bangladesh into at least early December. Increased security likely.
Further rallies and associated disruptions are likely across Bangladesh into at least early December as the interim government works to stabilize the country following the ousting of long-time Prime Minister and Awami League (AL) leader Sheikh Hasina. In recent weeks, renewed protests, accompanied by violent clashes and attacks, have sporadically occurred nationwide. On Nov. 5, clashes occurred between activists and law enforcement in Chattogram following the publication of a social media post calling for a ban on the Hindu organization the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON). Unidentified perpetrators purportedly threw bricks and acid at officers, leaving at least 12 personnel wounded. Some sources suggest that related investigations have uncovered plans to vandalize Hindu temples and idols, prompting increased security at religious sites in Chattogram to prevent such unrest.
Additionally, student organizations have held intermittent rallies to demand President Mohammed Shahabuddin's resignation, which has led to several clashes between activists and police. In late October, activists attempted to storm the presidential residence of Bangabhaban in Dhaka. Further altercations are likely in other parts of Bangladesh over the coming days. Business operations, ground transport, and flight services remain vulnerable to disruptions on short notice in the event of significant violence.
Civil Unrest
Unionized garment and other manufacturing workers continue to hold work stoppages and disruptive multi-day sit-ins along arterial roads, causing intermittent factory closures and traffic disruptions, mainly in Dhaka Division. Student organizations also regularly hold marches and road blockades over several demands, such as improvements in administration, investigations into the former government, action against alleged repression of student activists, a ban on AL-related student unions, job reservation criteria, as well as constitutional amendments. The AL party will probably hold sporadic rallies to demand that Hasina return to office; several AL leaders and family members have reportedly been killed in violent incidents. Minority groups, including Hindus, have staged demonstrations following targeted attacks at various residences, businesses, and places of worship.
Future demonstrations will likely attract large crowds, especially near transportation hubs, public squares, and major intersections. Sporadic security incidents, such as arson, looting, and vandalism, will probably continue to target cultural sites, media offices, government buildings, and AL offices and leaders' residences. Political tensions will likely intensify if attempts are made to hold fresh elections.
Security Measures
On Sept. 17, the interim government granted commissioned officers in the Bangladesh Army executive magistrate powers for 60 days. Under the Criminal Procedural Code (CrPC) of 1898, the move empowers the officers with expanded authority to detain suspects, issue arrest warrants, search for evidence, rescue individuals from illegal detention, disperse illegal gatherings, enforce arrest warrants beyond their usual jurisdictions, and take other actions to maintain public order.
Heightened counterterror and anti-crime vigilance is likely following the escape of inmates from multiple prisons in recent months. Over 900 prisoners, including individuals convicted under terror charges, remain at large. As a precaution, increased security measures, including cordons and traffic restrictions, are likely at government, state-funded, and security installations. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points to major cities and air and sea ports. Indian authorities are also imposing intensive security along the land border with Bangladesh due to concerns about spillover violence and illegal passage.
Avoid all demonstrations due to possible violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm ground transport and flight arrangements before departure; do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks, as protesters could attack vehicles. Plan accordingly for business disruptions. Heed all official instructions, including curfew orders as well as security and traffic advisories. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
The incidence of demonstrations has recently decreased across the country, and operational disruptions are likely to ease as the interim government stabilizes. Protests, initially led by university students against a controversial job quota system favoring descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans, peaked when Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled after her residence was stormed. An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has since been established, with military officials in talks with student leaders about the transition.
The tenure of Bangladesh's interim government remains unclear, with some political groups advocating for elections within three months following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Meanwhile, some sources indicate the next election is constitutionally mandated to occur by Jan. 8, 2029, and discussions are ongoing about democratic reforms that the interim government may implement before the next elections.
