Caribbean Sea: Tropical Depression 18 tracking northward across the western Caribbean Sea as of Nov. 4 /update 1

Tropical Depression 18 is tracking northward across the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica Nov. 4. As of 10:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 310 km (195 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward Nov. 4 and makes a close approach to Jamaica early Nov. 5, passing just west of the island. The storm is likely to strengthen as it continues to track northwestward and passes between the eastern and western Cayman Islands as a strong tropical storm late afternoon-early evening Nov. 5. The system is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it continues northwestward and passes very close to the east of the Isle of Youth in Cuba early Nov. 6 before making landfall close to the border between Artemisa and Pinar del Rio provinces in western Cuba around noon Nov. 6. The system is likely to weaken back into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico late Nov. 6-early Nov. 9.

As of Nov. 4, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands

• Hurricane Watch: Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth provinces, Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica

• Tropical Storm Watches: Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas provinces, Cuba

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by the afternoon Nov. 5 and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Nov. 4 and are possible in central Cuba Nov. 6. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean, with the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through Nov. 6. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with locally heavier totals of up to 23 cm (9 inches) are forecast. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with landslides possible. The heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States Nov. 6-10.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica late Nov. 4 and the Cayman Islands Nov. 5. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.6-1.2 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth in Cuba. Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.