Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Rafael tracking north-northwestward across the western Caribbean Sea as of late Nov. 4 /update 2

Tropical Storm Rafael is tracking north-northwestward across the western Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica late Nov. 4. As of 19:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 245 km (150 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make a close approach to Jamaica early Nov. 5, passing just west of the island. Rafael is likely to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it continues to track northwestward and passes between the eastern and western Cayman Islands late Nov. 5. The system is forecast to strengthen further into a Category 2 hurricane as it continues northwestward and passes very close to the east of the Isle of Youth in Cuba the afternoon of Nov. 6 before making landfall over western Artemisa Province in western Cuba shortly after. The system will likely weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico early Nov. 7-9 toward Louisiana, US.

As of late Nov. 4, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands

• Hurricane Watch: Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth provinces, Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica

• Tropical Storm Watches: Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas provinces in Cuba; lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as Dry Tortugas in Florida

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by the afternoon Nov. 5 and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Nov. 4-early Nov. 5 and are possible in central Cuba and in the lower and middle Florida Keys Nov. 6. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean, with the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through Nov. 6. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with locally heavier totals of up to 23 cm (9 inches) are forecast. Flooding and landslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba. The heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States Nov. 6-10.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica late Nov. 4. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands and 1.8-2.7 m (6-9 feet) along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth in Cuba. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause flooding in normally dry areas near the coast from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above ground in the Dry Tortugas and 03.-0.6 m (1-2 feet) in the lower Florida Keys if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Swells generated by the system will probably affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A large landslide in the Mount Prospect area of Brandon Hill in West Rural St Andrew, north of Kingston, Jamaica, the evening of Nov. 2 isolated some communities. All government offices in Jamaica are closed from 16:00 Nov 4 but all essential and emergency services, including hospitals and law enforcement, will continue to operate as normal. Schools across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are closed Nov. 5.

Much of Cuba is still recovering from the collapse of the power grid Oct. 18 and the passage of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall near Baracoa in Guantanamo Province at around 18:10 Oct. 20. Authorities in Cuba have already evacuated more than 66,000 people in Guantanamo Province in far eastern Cuba, ahead of predicted heavy rainfall and flooding. Plans are underway to evacuate thousands of residents in Pinar del Rio Province. Maritime traffic traffic between the ports of Batabano and Nueva Gerona is suspended. Officials suspended buses connecting Baracoa and Maisi on Nov. 4, all bus operations to and from Havana, and interprovincial routes from Sancti Spiritus to Artemisa. Train 11 from Havana to Santiago de Cuba Nov. 5 and Train 15 from Havana to Holguin Nov. 6 are canceled. Authorities have also suspended Train 18 from Manzanillo-Bayamo to Havana Nov. 5 and Train 14 from Guantanamo to Havana Nov. 6 until weather and safety conditions improve. Cancellation of interprovincial train services in the western region, from Matanzas to Pinar del Rio, will be in effect from midnight Nov. 4. Several Cuban provinces have partially or fully suspended classes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.