Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Rafael tracking northwestward to the south of Little Cayman Island, Cayman Islands, as of late Nov. 5 /update 4

Tropical Storm Rafael is tracking northwestward across the western Caribbean Sea to the south of Little Cayman Island, Cayman Islands, late Nov. 5. As of 19:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 45 km (25 miles) southeast of Little Cayman Island, Cayman Islands.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will pass very close to the west of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands over the coming hours. Rafael is likely to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it continues to track northwestward, passing close to the east of the Isle of Youth in Cuba early Nov. 6 before making landfall over eastern Artemisa Province in western Cuba the afternoon the same day. The system is forecast to initially maintain hurricane strength before weakening into a tropical storm the afternoon of Nov. 9 as it tracks generally northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana, US, Nov. 7-10.

As of late Nov. 5, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands and Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth provinces in Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as Dry Tortugas in Florida

• Tropical Storm Watches: Camaguey and Las Tunas provinces in Cuba

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by the evening of Nov. 5 and in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba Nov. 6.

Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Nov. 7, with the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of southern and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with locally heavier totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) in higher terrain, are forecast in these areas; flash flooding and landslides are possible. The heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States Nov. 6-10. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys. A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland Nov. 6.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Nov. 5 and 1.8-2.7 m (6-9 feet) in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth, Nov. 6. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause flooding in normally dry areas near the coast from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above ground in the Dry Tortugas and 0.3-0.6 m (1-2 feet) in the lower Florida Keys if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Swells generated by the system will probably affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Aviation authorities in the Cayman Islands have announced that Sir Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac and Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) on Grand Cayman will be closed through 12:00 Nov. 6 due to Rafael. Caribbean Airlines has announced the cancellation of at least eight flights to and from Jamaica Nov. 5 due to the passing of the storm. Schools, banks, courts, and most public sector offices are closed in the Cayman Islands.

Much of Cuba is still recovering from the collapse of the power grid Oct. 18 and the passage of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall near Baracoa in Guantanamo Province at around 18:10 Oct. 20. Authorities in Cuba have already evacuated more than 66,000 people in Guantanamo Province in far eastern Cuba, ahead of predicted heavy rainfall and flooding. Plans are underway to evacuate thousands of residents in Pinar del Rio Province. Sunwing evacuated all Sunwing customers in Cayo Largo del Sur the afternoon of Nov. 5.

The Cuban Aviation Corporation has suspended airport operations across western Cuba, including Rafael Cabrera Mustelier (GER), Vilo Acuna International (CYO), Jose Marti International (HAV), and Juan Gualberto Gomez International (VRA) airports Nov. 6-7. Maritime traffic between the ports of Batabano and Nueva Gerona, and boat services in Havana Bay are also canceled. Officials suspended buses connecting Baracoa and Maisi, all bus operations to and from Havana, and interprovincial routes from Sancti Spiritus to Artemisa. Train 11 from Havana to Santiago de Cuba Nov. 5 and Train 15 from Havana to Holguin Nov. 6 are canceled. Authorities have also suspended Train 18 from Manzanillo-Bayamo to Havana Nov. 5 and Train 14 from Guantanamo to Havana Nov. 6 until weather and safety conditions improve. Cancellation of interprovincial train services in the western region, from Matanzas to Pinar del Rio, is in effect from midnight Nov. 4. Schools are closed across much of western Cuba since Nov. 5. Oil companies have begun evacuating nonessential personnel from oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.