Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Rafael tracking northwestward to the southwest of Jamaica as of early Nov. 5 /update 3

Tropical Storm Rafael is tracking northwestward across the western Caribbean Sea to the southwest of Jamaica early Nov. 5. As of 07:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 130 km (80 miles) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue to strengthen as it tracks northwestward and makes a close approach to the west of Jamaica during the morning Nov. 5 and then passes very close to the west of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands during the evening Nov. 5. Rafael is likely to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it continues to track northwestward and passes close to the east of the Isle of Youth in Cuba during the morning Nov. 6 before making landfall over western Artemisa Province in western Cuba during the afternoon Nov. 6. The system is forecast to initially maintain hurricane strength before weakening into a tropical storm as it tracks generally northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico Nov. 7-10 toward Louisiana, US.

As of early Nov. 5, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Cayman Islands and Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth provinces, Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Jamaica and Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, Cuba

• Tropical Storm Watches: Camaguey and Las Tunas provinces in Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as Dry Tortugas in Florida

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by the afternoon Nov. 5 and in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through the afternoon Nov. 5 and in parts of west-central Cuba Nov. 6. Tropical storm conditions are possible in east-central Cuba and in the lower and middle Florida Keys Nov. 6. Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Nov. 7, with the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of southern and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with locally heavier totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) are forecast in these areas. Flash flooding and landslides could occur over mountainous areas of Jamaica and Cuba. The heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States Nov. 6-10. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland Nov. 6.

Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica through early Nov. 5. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Nov. 5 and 1.8-2.7 m (6-9 feet) in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area Nov. 6. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause flooding in normally dry areas near the coast from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above ground in the Dry Tortugas and 0.3-0.6 m (1-2 feet) in the lower Florida Keys if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Swells generated by the system will probably affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

A large landslide in the Mount Prospect area of Brandon Hill in West Rural St Andrew, north of Kingston, Jamaica, the evening of Nov. 2 isolated some communities. All government offices in Jamaica closed from 16:00 Nov 4 but all essential and emergency services, including hospitals and law enforcement, will continue to operate as normal. Schools across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands are closed Nov. 5. Banks, courts, and most public sector offices are closed in the Cayman Islands Nov. 5.

Aviation authorities in the Cayman Islands have announced that Sir Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac and Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) on Grand Cayman will be closed Nov. 5 through 12:00 Nov. 6 due to Rafael. Caribbean Airlines has announced at least eight flights to and from Jamaica Nov. 5 have been canceled due to the passing of the storm.

Much of Cuba is still recovering from the collapse of the power grid Oct. 18 and the passage of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall near Baracoa in Guantanamo Province at around 18:10 Oct. 20. Authorities in Cuba have already evacuated more than 66,000 people in Guantanamo Province in far eastern Cuba, ahead of predicted heavy rainfall and flooding. Plans are underway to evacuate thousands of residents in Pinar del Rio Province. Maritime traffic traffic between the ports of Batabano and Nueva Gerona is suspended. Officials suspended buses connecting Baracoa and Maisi on Nov. 4, all bus operations to and from Havana, and interprovincial routes from Sancti Spiritus to Artemisa. Train 11 from Havana to Santiago de Cuba Nov. 5 and Train 15 from Havana to Holguin Nov. 6 are canceled. Authorities have also suspended Train 18 from Manzanillo-Bayamo to Havana Nov. 5 and Train 14 from Guantanamo to Havana Nov. 6 until weather and safety conditions improve. Cancellation of interprovincial train services in the western region, from Matanzas to Pinar del Rio, is in effect from midnight Nov. 4. Schools have been closed across much of western Cuba from Nov. 5.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.