China: Tropical Storm Kong-rey tracking north-northeastward along the coast of Zhejiang Province Nov. 1 /update 9

Tropical Storm Kong-rey is tracking north-northeastward and is skirting along the coast of China's Zhejiang Province Nov. 1, having passed over Taiwan as a typhoon Oct. 31. As of 17:00, the system's center of circulation was approximately 956 km (594 miles) west-southwest of Sasebo, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will weaken slightly as it tracks northeastward across the East China Sea away from China Nov. 1-early Nov. 2, before turning east-northeastward and making another landfall over southern Nagasaki Prefecture on Japan's Kyushu Island during the late morning Nov. 2. Kong-rey is expected to weaken slightly and transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks east-northeastward across Kyushu Island and makes another landfall over Ehime Prefecture on Shikoku Island during the afternoon Nov. 2. The post-tropical system is forecast to track east-northeastward across Shikoku and into Wakayama Bay before making landfall over Wakayama Prefecture and moving across the Kii Peninsula on Honshu Island during the early evening Nov. 2. The system will continue to slowly weaken as it tracks east-northeastward off the southern coast of Honshu through early Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Warnings
As of early Nov. 1, the China Meteorological Administration is maintaining a blue typhoon warning (the lowest level on a four-tier scale) warning of strong winds and rough seas in coastal areas and heavy rainfall over northeastern Zhejiang, Shanghai, and southeastern Jiangsu provinces. Rainfall totals of 10-12 cm (4-5 inches) are forecast across parts of the region Nov. 1-2. A separate blue rainstorm warning is in effect over the affected area, as well as orange and yellow flood and yellow landslide warnings for parts of eastern Zhejiang and northeastern Fujian provinces.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a weather bulletin warning of heavy rainfall across parts of eastern and western Japan as Kong-rey transitions into a post-tropical cyclone and moves across the country. Downpours may be accompanied by thunderstorms, strong winds, lightning, and possible tornadoes. Rainfall totals of around 25 cm (10 inches) are forecast across Northern Kyushu and Shikoku regions, 18 cm (7 inches) in Southern Kyushu Region, 15 cm (6 inches) in Kanto-Koshin, Kinki, and Tokai regions, and 12 cm (5 inches) in Hokuriku Region Nov. 2-3. Yellow heavy rain with possible flooding and landslides, strong wind, high waves, and thunderstorm warnings are in place across parts of Okinawa, Southern Kyushu, Northern Kyushu, and Shikoku regions. Further warnings will likely be issued and some warnings upgraded as the storm system moves closer to land over the coming hours.

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration has canceled its typhoon and heavy rain warnings as the system moves away from the island. However, strong wind advisories remain in place along the north coast and for some northern and western islands and yellow swell warnings (the lowest of two levels) are being maintained for some northern coastal areas.

Ongoing Disruptions and Evacuations
Disruptions are ongoing across parts of Taiwan after the storm brought heavy rainfall, strong winds, and associated flooding and damage as it passed over the island Oct. 31. Authorities have reported at least one fatality in Nantou County after a tree fell on a vehicle on Provincial Highway 14A and another in Taipei after a person was struck by a downed utility pole. At least 515 others have been injured and four people are missing. Flooding and landslides have blocked several roads, particularly in eastern areas of the country, and flooding washed away a bridge in Hualien County's Fuli Township. Around 119,000 households remain without power across parts of the country as of Nov. 1, down from around 843,000 homes affected Oct. 31. Around 21,000 households remain without water supply as of Nov. 1, down from around 33,000 Oct. 31.

Authorities have evacuated more than 11,500 people across Taiwan as of early Nov. 1; more than 2,600 people were being accommodated in 134 emergency shelters. Schools and offices were closed across all cities and counties, hundreds of flights were canceled, most rail and ferry services were suspended, and many other services were disrupted Oct. 31; services are beginning to resume normal operations as of Nov. 1, however, residual delays are likely over the coming days, particularly in areas heavily affected by flooding and storm damage.

In China, officials in Zhejiang Province have evacuated more than 280,000 people ahead of the storm's approach, with more than 10,000 evacuation centers opened across the province. All 153 ferry passenger routes in Zhejiang have been suspended.

In Japan, red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable groups (the middle evacuation level on a five-tier scale) have been issued for parts of Fukuoka, Nagasaki, saga, and Yamaguchi prefectures due to heavy rainfall forecast associated with Kong-rey.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.