India: Increased security, related disruptions likely to continue in parts of Uttar Pradesh State through mid-November

Due to the local by-elections, increased security and related disruptions to local businesses and transportation services are likely in Uttar Pradesh State through mid-November. Voting began on Nov. 20, and results will be announced on Nov. 23 for the constituencies of Ghaziabad, Katehari, Karhal, Khair, Kundarki, Majhawan, Meerapur, Phulpur, and Sisamau. Officials are maintaining an enhanced security presence in the affected areas. As of early Nov. 21, clashes erupted between members of opposing political parties amid allegations of election rigging, prompting officials to intervene. Reports indicate that some unidentified attackers threw stones at law enforcement personnel.

Related political demonstrations of varying types, including sit-ins and marches, are likely over the coming days. Potential gathering sites include political party offices, government buildings, stadiums, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings could draw tens of thousands of participants. Officials will likely monitor any rallies and may use force to disperse overly unruly crowds.

Depending on operational needs, the government could implement enhanced restrictions, including temporary curbs on public movement, internet access, and telecommunications. Further clashes between activists and police, as well as between members of opposing groups, are probable. Isolated security incidents, including vandalism, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are also likely.