India: Protests likely in Jammu and Kashmir through late November

Protests are likely in Jammu and Kashmir through late November following the passage of a political resolution on Nov. 6. The resolution seeks to restore special status to the Union Territory after it was revoked in 2019. It was passed by the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, led by various political parties, such as the Indian National Congress (INC). On Nov. 7, hundreds of activists from the Gorkha and other communities held related demonstrations in parts of Jammu, calling for various demands, including creating a separate state for Jammu.

Although no groups have announced specific plans for such demonstrations, additional sporadic protest events of varying types are likely in the coming days. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could hold demonstrations as party leaders have expressed disapproval of the resolution, asserting that it could reverse the rights and development achieved after the 2019 revocation and affect the region's integration with the rest of India. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, and major thoroughfares. Participation will likely be the largest in Jammu.

Authorities will likely monitor such rallies and may move to disperse overly disruptive crowds. Depending on operational needs, the government could impose enhanced restrictions, including temporary public gathering bans. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of opposing groups, are possible. Isolated security incidents, including small-scale explosions, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized business and transport disruptions are likely.