28 Nov 2024 | 11:33 AM UTC
Namibia: Increased security likely nationwide through early December following general election /update 2
Increased security likely in Namibia following Nov. 27 general election; likely protests, rallies through early December awaiting results.
Following Namibia's Nov. 27 general election, increased security is likely nationwide through early December; political parties and candidates will likely hold protests and rallies in the coming days. The campaign and election day were largely peaceful, though instances of long queues and logistical issues were reported. It is unclear when the results will be announced.
The ruling South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) has won all elections since its independence in 1990; SWAPO and its candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, remain the likely favorites. Their main challengers are the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM), formerly the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA), led by McHenry Venaani, and the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), led by Panduleni Itula.
While previous electoral periods in Namibia have remained peaceful and transparent, the credible challenge posed by the opposition and the possibility of a second vote for the presidential election will likely lead to increased tensions throughout the process. Rallies, protests and political events are likely in the coming days, especially once the results are announced, leading to localized increased security. Travel disruptions are likely near events. Violence between opposing supporters or with security services, while unlikely, remains possible.
Exercise caution near rallies or demonstration sites in the coming days, especially once the results are announced. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.
Namibia holds its general elections every five years. The President is elected directly through a two-round system, with the victor required to receive over 50 percent of the votes. Prior to 2024, the election has never required a second round. The bicameral legislature comprises 104 members of the National Assembly and 42 members of the National Council. 96 members of the former are elected through a proportional party-list system; the President nominates the remainder.
Similar to neighboring democracies, the ruling party inherited from the liberation movement has seen its popularity dwindle, now likely at the cusp of losing its majority. The latest elections in 2019 saw late-president Geingob and SWAPO receive 56 and 65 percent of the votes, respectively. Namibia's struggling economy, growing youth discontent, and Geingob's passing in early 2024 may further diminish its voter base. On the other hand, SWAPO may benefit from a highly divided opposition, with the PDM and IPC presently unlikely to agree on an alliance to unseat SWAPO.
