Philippine Sea: Typhoon Toraji tracking west-northwestward toward the Philippines as of early Nov. 11 /update 2

Typhoon Toraji (known in the Philippines as Nika) is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea toward Luzon in the Philippines early Nov. 11. As of 05:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 285 km (177 miles) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will make landfall over far northeastern Aurora Province during the morning Nov. 11. Toraji is expected to weaken but remain a typhoon as it tracks northwestward across Luzon during the morning and early afternoon of Nov. 11 before exiting into the South China Sea. The system is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across the South China Sea toward far southern China Nov. 12-early Nov. 14, before weakening into a tropical depression and dissipating as it turns to track southwestward to the east of Hainan Island, China, Nov. 14-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 11, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to eastern, northern, and north-central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): northernmost Aurora, central and southern Isabela, southeastern Abra, the central and eastern portions of Mountain Province (Sadanga, Bontoc, Barlig, Natonin, Paracelis), the eastern Ifugao, and western and southern Kalinga

• TCWS 3: northern Aurora, northeastern Nueva Vizcaya, northern Quirino, the rest of Isabela, southwestern Cagayan, the rest of Abra, southern Apayao, the rest of Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, northern Benguet, southern Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur

• TCWS 2: central Aurora, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, northwestern and eastern Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, the rest of Benguet, the rest of Ilocos Norte, La Union, northeastern Pangasinan, and northern Nueva Ecija

• TCWS 1: rest of Aurora, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, northern and central Zambales, Metro Manila, Rizal, eastern Laguna, the northern and eastern portions of Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, and northeastern Camarines Sur

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, and Apayao provinces Nov. 11 as well as 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over Abra, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union provinces Nov. 11 and Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur provinces Nov. 12. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines Nov. 11-12. There is also a moderate-to-high risk storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including the Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Estimated storm surge heights of 2.1-3 meters (7-10 feet) are forecast in parts of Aurora, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Isabela provinces and 1-2 meters (3-7 feet) in other affected areas.

Authorities in Albay Province have evacuated more than 1,200 people in Libon town early Nov. 11 due to anticipated heavy rainfall in the area. Authorities have also evacuated residents across 2,500 villages in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, and Cordillera provinces, as well as some residents in parts of Camarines Sur Province. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) suspended sea travel off Quezon Province Nov. 9 due to rough seas, and around 140 passengers are stranded across ports in the Bicol Region as of early Nov. 11 due to the suspension of sea travel. Schools have canceled classes in dozens of locations across most of Luzon. At least seven towns in Cagayan Province remain without power.

Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, and most recently Typhoon Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines), which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across parts of the region. More than 640,000 people remain evacuated following damage caused by the storms, with the worst affected Cagayan Province. Further severe weather associated with Toraji (Nika) will likely lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.