Philippine Sea: Typhoon Usagi tracking west-northwestward toward the Philippines as of early Nov. 13 /update 2

Typhoon Usagi (known in the Philippines as Ofel) is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea toward Luzon in the Philippines early Nov. 13. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 722 km (449 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen further and make a close approach to Cagayan Province in the Philippines the afternoon of Nov. 14 before making landfall over Camiguin Island in the Babuyan Islands late Nov. 14. The storm is likely to make a close approach to Batanes Province early Nov. 15 before turning to track northeastward, weaken into a tropical storm, and make a close approach to Pingtung County in Taiwan the afternoon of Nov. 15. The storm is then likely to make another landfall over the Miyako Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan, late Nov. 16 before making a close approach to Okinawa Main Island, Okinawa Prefecture, early Nov. 17, passing just south of the island. Usagi is forecast to weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks northeastward away from Okinawa Prefecture through early Nov. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Nov. 13, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds. There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge reaching 2-3 meters (0.6-0.9 feet) in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora provinces. The following Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS) are in place:

• TCWS 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale): Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, northern and central Isabela, Apayao, eastern Kalinga, far eastern Mountain Province, and far eastern Ifugao provinces.

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Isabela and Cagayan provinces Nov. 14 as well as 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Abra, Batanes, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ifugao provinces Nov. 14. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines Nov. 13-15.

Authorities have preemptively evacuated residents in hazardous areas across the Cordillera Administrative, Ilocos, and Cagayan Valley regions. Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Tropical Storm Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, Tropical Storm Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines), which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7, and most recently Typhoon Toraji (named Nika in the Philippines), which made landfall near Dilasag in Aurora Province early Nov. 11. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across the region. Tens of thousands of people remain evacuated following damage caused by the storms, with the worst affected Cagayan Province. Further severe weather associated with Typhoon Usagi will likely lead to more disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.