29 Nov 2024 | 08:38 AM UTC
Russia: Drone and missile strikes likely to continue in western regions through at least December /update 6
Aerial attacks likely across western Russia through at least December. Business, transport disruptions likely. Casualties possible.
Periodic intensification of drone and missile strikes against military depots and infrastructure, hydrocarbon-processing facilities, naval bases, airfields, and defense manufacturers will likely continue across western Russia through at least December. Missile and UAV strikes will likely continue to prompt defensive operations, emergency response, damage to infrastructure and buildings, and possible casualties. Russian authorities frequently impose restrictions on civilian airports and airspace in response to drone activity, thereby prompting flight disruptions.
Most Ukrainian military strikes target the Russian regions adjacent to Ukraine. As of late November, local reports indicate near-daily air drone strikes in Belgorod, Krasnodar, Rostov, and Voronezh Oblasts. The principal targets are military infrastructure and hydrocarbon facilities. In mid-November, the UK and US authorized Ukrainian forces to use long-range precision missiles against military targets in Russia. Since then, officials have confirmed increased strikes in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
Periodic strikes occur further away from the conflict area. Longer-range drone strikes may target hydrocarbon facilities, radar installations, and military airfields up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory, including the Moscow and Murmansk Oblasts. Occasional further longer-range operations remain possible.
Long-range missile strikes will likely continue to increase in the coming weeks and months. Although Russian air defense systems may intercept UAVs and missiles, associated disruptions, including falling debris and temporary civilian airspace closure, are likely. Further intensification of strikes against oil facilities and ammunition depots is highly likely.
Authorities will likely maintain tight security near any critical infrastructure in the region over the coming weeks. Occasionally, strikes may hit significant urban centers, resulting in civilian casualties. Localized disruptions, including flight delays, may persist after authorities sound the all-clear. Drones intercepted by air defense systems may cause damage to residential or other business areas. Additional attacks on other critical infrastructure cannot be ruled out.
Monitor official channels for notifications of incoming military strikes. Seek cover or remain indoors in the event of reports of drone activity, and remain in cover until the all-clear is given. During drone or missile attacks stay away from windows and walls bordering outdoor areas.
Although Ukraine rarely claims responsibility for military strikes within Russia, Kyiv is almost certainly responsible for the intermittent strikes and has increasingly claimed responsibility for particularly damaging or high-profile attacks. These strikes will likely intensify in frequency and severity through late 2024, as drone attacks have picked up as ground combat decreases during the winter months. Drone strikes have been reported at hydrocarbon facilities, radar installations, and military airfields up to 1,000 km (600 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory. Moreover, the Ukrainian military has received permission to use US-made missiles to target any border areas from which Russian forces are actively attacking. Additionally, the reported missile strike on Murmansk claimed by Ukrainian authorities on July 29 would appear to demonstrate a near doubling of Ukraine's strike range into Russia. Unconfirmed reports indicate that such attacks may have reduced Russian oil refining capacity by 5-12 percent. Bombings targeting Russia's strategic long-range aerial capabilities have impacted aircraft production facilities, long-range radar installations, strategic bombing aircraft, and airfields.
