Turkiye: Adverse weather forecast to continue across western and central regions through at least Nov. 27 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast across much of western and central Turkiye through at least Nov. 27. Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued a general weather warning advising of a significant drop in temperatures across the country from Nov. 23, as well as a mix of rainfall, sleet, and snow through Nov. 27. Rainfall is expected to fall in the form of rain in western coastal regions, transitioning to more wintry precipitation in inland areas, especially in elevated parts of the country. Rainfall totals of 2-5 cm (0.8-2 inches) with localized heavier amounts in parts of Marmara and western Mediterranea regions Nov. 22-23 and snowfall accumulations of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are possible in interior central regions Nov. 24. Heavy rainfall may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and strong winds could cause property damage and power outages. Hazardous travel conditions are likely in areas where more wintry precipitation occurs due to slippery roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing snow.

The Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area Nov. 22-23:

Nov. 22

• Orange thunderstorm warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Antalya Province.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Burdur and Isparta provinces.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Balikesir, Bursa, Canakkale, Edirne, Istanbul, Kirklareli, Tekirdag, and Yalova provinces.

Nov. 23

• Orange heavy snowfall warnings: Bartin, Bolu, Duzce, Karabuk, Kastamonu, and Zonguldak provinces.

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings: Kastamonu Province.

• Yellow heavy snowfall warnings: Bilecik, Bursa, Kocaeli, Sakarya, and Yalova provinces.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Bartin, Bilecik, Bursa, Duzce, Kocaeli, Sakarya, Sinop, Yalova, and Zonguldak provinces.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Antalya, Aydin, Balikesir, Canakkale, Istanbul, Izmir, Manisa, Mugla, and Tekirdag provinces.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Afyonkarahisar, Aksaray, Amasya, Ankara, Balikesir, Bartin, Bilecik, Bolu, Bursa, Canakkale, Cankiri, Corum, Denizli, Duzce, Erdine, Eskisehir, Istanbul, Karabuk, Karaman, Kastamonu, Kayseri, Kirkkale, Kirklareli, Kirsehir, Kocaeli, Konya, Kutahya, Manisa, Nevsehir, Nigde, Sakarya, Samsun, Sinop, Sivas, Tekirdag, Tokat, Usak, Yalova, Yozgat, and Zonguldak provinces.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming hours and days.

Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the parts of the region over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.