10 Dec 2024 | 03:08 PM UTC
Madagascar: Increased security likely nationwide amid Dec. 11 municipal elections /update 1
Rallies, protests, increased security likely in Madagascar amid Dec. 11 municipal elections. Possible disruptions, violence.
Political rallies, protests, and associated heightened security measures and disruptions are likely in Madagascar on Dec. 11 and in the days following as the country holds its municipal elections. Citizens will elect mayors and councilors in 1695 municipalities. In Antananarivo, seven candidates are running, including Harilala Ramanantsoa of the ruling "All Together With Andry Rajoelina" (IRMAR) coalition, who will notably face Tojo Ravalomanana, son of the former president Marc Ravalomanana. The campaign ended on Dec. 9, without any significant disruptions being reported; however, the opposition has warned of alleged voter fraud after authorities extended voters' registration date through Dec. 4.
Election periods in Madagascar are typically disruptive, with disputed results often leading to civil unrest. Security forces are prone to use force, especially during street protests in support of opposition candidates. Clashes between activists from rival political camps or between protesters and police are not uncommon. Labor and student organizations may also take advantage of the increased political focus to stage protests or strikes in support of their own agendas. Likely civil unrest locations include governmental buildings, universities, and political party headquarters. In Antananarivo, potential hotspots include Place du 13 Mai, Avenue de l'Independance, Mahamasina stadium, and the University of Antananarivo's Ankatso campus.
Increased security is likely nationwide, particularly near polling booths, along key thoroughfares and near government buildings. Measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and vehicle or pedestrian searches. Localized curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions are possible to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. In the capital, authorities will likely restrict pedestrian access to prominent city squares and other public areas. Security will probably be at its tightest on election day and in the days following. Localized business and transport disruptions are likely.
Monitor trusted sources and local media for possible spontaneous protests, especially in the event of a contested election. Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence; avoid traveling near polling stations. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent areas where large demonstrations are taking place. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Heed the instructions of local authorities. Refrain from publicly discussing politically sensitive topics; refrain from wearing orange clothing due to its association with the ruling party.
These are Madagascar's third polls in recent months following the presidential elections in November 2023 and the parliamentary elections in May 2024. Both were won by incumbent President Andry Rajoelina and his IRMAR coalition. Both elections were considerably contested by the opposition parties. Rajoelina was reelected after six weeks of violent protests, which resulted in increased police presence, the closure of Antananarivo's main avenue, and overnight curfews. The legislative elections featured incidents of violence, inconsistencies, and possible fraud noted by independent observers. Some opposition candidates accused the government of irregularities and have called for their supporters to closely supervise the ballot counting.
