Mozambique Channel: Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido tracking west-southwestward toward Mayotte Dec. 14 /update 7

Tropical Cyclone Chido is tracking west-southwestward across the Mozambique Channel and is approaching Mayotte Dec. 14. As of 12:00 EAT, the system was around 735 km (457 miles) north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over far northern Mayotte in the coming hours. After passing Mayotte, the storm will initially maintain its strength as it continues to track west-southwestward across the Mozambique Channe Dec. 14, before weakening into a tropical cyclone and making landfall over far northeastern Nampula Province close to the border with Cabo Delagado Province in Mozambique during the morning Dec. 15. After landfall, Chido is forecast to weaken rapidly into a moderate tropical storm as it tracks west-southwestward inland over northern Mozambique Dec. 15 before weakening further into a zone of disturbed weather and dissipating as it reaches southern Malawai early Dec. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming hours and days.

Meteo France Mayotte has issued a purple cyclone warning (the highest level on a four-tier scale) across Mayotte. Winds gusting up to 250 kph (155 mph), heavy rainfall, rough seas, and storm surge are forecast over the coming hours. The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a public advisory warning of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds over parts of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces over the coming days associated with Chido. Rainfall totals of more than 25 cm (10 inches) and winds gusting up to 200 kph (124 mph) are expected across parts of the affected region. Red cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place across Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces.

Damage to buildings, fallen trees, and power outages have been reported in Mayotte as of Dec. 14. Full damage assessments are unlikely to be carried out until the adverse weather associated storm system has passed and it may take some time for the full extent of Chido's impact to be confirmed. Residents in Mayotte have been advised not to venture out until the storm has passed and thousands of residents are being housed in dozens of emergency shelters established across Mayotte. Shops, bars, and restaurants have been closed across Mayotte since 22:00 Dec. 14. Dzaoudzi–Pamandzi International Airport (DZA) is closed through at least the morning Dec. 16 due to the passing of the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.