Syria: Security situation likely to remain volatile through at least late January following the fall of the Assad government /update 6

The security situation in Syria will remain highly volatile through at least late January following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's government. The insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), seized control of Damascus on Dec. 8, with al-Assad and his family reportedly fleeing the country to Moscow.

Military Operations

Military operations are ongoing in northeastern Syria, where HTS' successes have fueled further resistance. Tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkish-backed groups in northeastern Syria have escalated. Authorities in the so-called Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) - a Kurdish-controlled de facto self-governing region encompassing Al-Hasaka Governorate, as well as parts of Ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zur governorates - have declared a state of emergency effective Dec. 8. On Dec. 11, a US-brokered ceasefire was reached between the SDF and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in Manbij and Kobani, which led to the SDF retreating from both cities. However, negotiations failed on Dec. 16, and armed clashes intensified, particularly in Manbij and near the Tishrin Dam. Tensions will likely continue to escalate as SDF and SNA forces launch military operations to control strategic territory in northeastern Syria.

On Dec. 26, HTS' security forces also launched an operation in the regions of Tartus and Latakia to reportedly disarm, capture, and arrest members of Assad's former military forces. Armed clashes erupted, and 14 members of HTS' security forces were killed in an alleged "ambush." HTS has increased its military presence in the western regions of Tartus and Latakia. Additional armed clashes are likely as HTS aims to control the western regions where most of al-Assad's former military and militias have found refuge.

Protests

As the security situation in Syria remains uncertain, protests across the country will likely continue to occur to defend the rights of minority groups, including Alawite Shi'as and Christians. Protests erupted on Dec. 25 in several areas, including Latakia, Tartus, and Homs, in reaction to the release of a video showing an attack on an Alawite shrine in Aleppo. Security forces imposed overnight curfews in Homs, Latakia, Jableh, and Tartus. HTS increased its military presence in Homs, Latakia, and Tartus and imposed regular checkpoints and heightened security measures.

Protests in Kurdish-controlled regions have also been reported to condemn Turkish intervention in Syria. Additional demonstrations are likely as SDF and SNA forces continue to clash.

Border Closures

In response to security concerns, Jordanian authorities have closed the Jaber border crossing with Syria. The Iraqi border with Syria also remains closed, and Lebanon has reportedly closed all land border crossings with Syria, except for one linking Beirut and Damascus, due to repeated Israeli airstrikes. On Dec. 8, Israel's Prime Minister announced that he had ordered the Israeli military to deploy and "seize" the demilitarized buffer zone on the border with Syria in the Golan Heights. Additional border closures and enhanced security measures are possible as the fighting continues.

Foreign Airstrikes

The Israeli military continues to carry out airstrikes in Syria. Since Dec. 8 and the fall of the Assad's government, reports indicate that the IDF has launched hundreds of strikes throughout Syria, targeting military facilities of the Syrian Army, including weapon warehouses, airports, and naval bases, mainly centered around Aleppo, Damascus, and Hama. Reports indicate that Israel is particularly concerned over Assad's strategic weapons systems, including long-range missile and chemical weapons, and has destroyed 90 percent of Assad's former arsenal. IDF will likely continue these operations in the coming weeks.

Additionally, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing its campaign of airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) as part of an ongoing effort to prevent the group from reconstituting. On Dec. 8, US bombers, fighter-bombers, and ground-attack aircraft struck at least 75 IS targets in central Syria. On Dec. 24, CENTCOM reported a strike that killed two IS operatives in the Deir ez-Zur Province. CENTCOM could ramp up such strikes over the coming weeks to ensure IS capabilities remain degraded.

Turkish forces also continue to carry out airstrikes in northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces, as clashes continue between the SDF and the SNA in the east.

Militant Attacks

IS, one of the most active militant groups in Syria, will probably intensify its attacks on government forces, foreigners, and civilians. Criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will also likely increase as the security environment worsens.

Militant attacks have also been reported in northeastern Syria. On Dec. 24, an explosion, reportedly due to a car bomb, killed two people in Manbij. On Dec. 27, another car explosion was reported, causing damage but no casualties. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility for either incident, Manbij has been at the center of clashes between SDF and SNA forces.

Transport and Business Disruptions

On Dec. 8, Damascus International Airport (DAM) halted all flights; the facility resumed domestic operations on Dec. 18, allowing flights between Damascus and Aleppo to depart. No information regarding the resumption of international operations has been released yet.

The volatile situation in Syria, fighting in the western and northeastern regions, and possible protests could severely disrupt transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in major cities, including Damascus and Aleppo, could suspend domestic operations on short notice; international flights remain suspended until the situation stabilizes. Increased security will likely impact traffic along the main highways between Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo. Security forces could impose movement restrictive measures, including curfews and checkpoints.