Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi tracking west-southwestward across Mozambique Channel following landfall over northern Madagascar early Jan. 12 /update 3

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is tracking west-southwestward in the Mozambique Channel away from northern Madagascar early Jan. 12 following landfall between the towns of Antsiranana in Diana Region and Vohemar in Sava Region late Jan. 11. As of 00:01 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 685 km (425 miles) north-northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it turns to track southwestwards and passes south of Mayotte Jan. 12 before strengthening further into an intense tropical cyclone by late Jan. 13 as it moves southwards over the Mozambique Channel between eastern Mozambique and western Madagascar through Jan. 14. The system is then expected to weaken back into a tropical cyclone as it tracks southeastward and passes close to southwestern Madagascar Jan. 15-early Jan 16 before weakening further into a severe tropical storm as it moves southeastward away from Madagascar through late Jan. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur in the coming hours and days.

As of early Jan. 12, Meteo Madagascar has issued red cyclone alerts (the highest level on the three-tier scale) for Diana and Sava regions and Bealanana, Antsohihy, and Analalava districts, as well as yellow alerts for Mahajanga I-II, Mitsinjo, and Soalala districts in Boeny Region and green alerts across the rest of Sofia, the rest of Boeny, and Analanjirofo regions. Widespread flooding, river flooding, and landslides are possible in the northern part of the country during the passing of the storm system. Rainfall amounts of over 12 cm (5 inches) in 24 hours and strong winds up to around 130 kph (81 mph) are expected in the region. Officials advise maritime users across northern and central Madagascar not to venture out to sea. Authorities have also issued red heavy rainfall warnings for Analjirofo and Atsinanana regions and yellow heavy rainfall warnings for Alotra-Mangoro, Betsiboka, and Melaky regions. Red strong wind warnings are in place for coastal areas between Antsiranana and Toamasina and between Antsiranana and Analalava, and yellow warnings are in place between Analalava and Maintirano. Red heavy swell warnings have been issued between Bobaomby and Mahanoro and from Bobaomby to Maintirano, with yellow heavy swell warnings between Maintirano and Morombe. Officials will likely update or rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses. All public transport across the Sava Region and all regional and national buses across the Diana Region have been suspended.

Meteo France Mayotte has issued a red cyclone alert (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) as of early Jan. 12. As the storm approaches, increasingly strong winds and heavy rainfall are forecast over the coming days. Dzaoudzi–Pamandzi International Airport (DZA) remains closed due to the storm, and ferry crossings between islands are also suspended.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.